New FEUTURE publication: Background Paper “Turkey and the European Union: Scenarios for 2023”, by Nathalie Tocci (IAI)

F|EU|TU|RE – FEUTURE with textThe Future of EU-Turkey Relations – analyses the past, present and future drivers of the EU-Turkey relationship. In order to navigate the possible future, a compass is necessary. This paper establishes this compass by imagining, delineating and systematizing three reference scenarios in order to organize subsequent research and eventually map out a most likely “feuture”. Drawing from Schwartz, the aim of these scenarios is to construct different pathways that might exist in future, suggesting and informing appropriate scholarly analysis or policy decisions that may be taken along those possible paths. Several conditions are proposed for the realisation of possible conflictual, cooperational or converging futures, taking into consideration forms of differentiated integration relating to these ideal-type scenarios.

The paper can be dowloaded here.

For more information about the FEUTURE project, please visit

New FEUTURE publication: Working Paper “Mapping periods and milestones of past EU-Turkey relations”

FEUTURE with text Authors: Hanna-Lisa Hauge (University of Cologne), Wolfgang Wessels (University of Cologne), Nurdan Selay Bedir (Middle East Technical University), Atila Eralp (Middle East Technical University)

This Working Paper aims to embed FEUTURE’s analysis of drivers of EU-Turkey relations in a historical context. It does so by outlining and discussing several narratives which represent influential interpretations of EU-Turkey relations at different times in history. It is argued that narratives on EU-Turkey relations became increasingly competitive in the course of time, both within EU and Turkey as well as between them. The paper maps these changes of narratives in light of different historical milestones and phases. The periodization also serves to outline trends of conflict, cooperation and convergence as manifested in the political discourse. Thereby, the paper also serves as starting point for the ensuing qualitative analysis of a vast set of sources, representing the debates in Turkey and the EU.

The paper can be downloaded here.

For more information about the FEUTURE project, please visit