FIIA Concluding projects, October 2012

The final report of the “Finnish Perspectives to the European Security Market” research project will be published on 15 October. The report analyses changes in the European defence and security market. The project was led by FIIA, implemented as a joint project with the National Defence University and the Finland Futures Research Centre and funded by the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (TEKES).

FIIA and the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) have published a joint report “Still Awake: The Beginnings of Arab Democratic Change”. The report, edited by FIIA Researcher Timo Behr and PISM researcher Patrycja Sasnal, focuses on the political transition taking place in Yemen, Syria, Libya, Morocco and Egypt.

As the Arab world moves from the dismantling of autocratic regimes to the creation of new systems of governance, various models of transition have emerged. Post-revolutionary political systems are likely to mirror the complex political bargains that have characterized these transition processes. This suggests that electoral politics will remain messy and that unresolved conflicts will be frozen in the emerging political orders. However, with some of these transitional bargains now being contested, there is potential for a further deepening of democratic change; but also a real risk that the region will see a re-emergence of political conflict.