Since the early 2000s, major transformations in the Southern Mediterranean political landscape have undeniably tested the limits of the EU and Turkey’s foreign policies. To a lesser extent, drivers from the eastern neighbourhood have strained, and in some instances, strengthened relations. Overall, drivers from the southern neighbourhood are likely to lead to pragmatic cooperation, while drivers from the eastern neighbourhood, although less influential, have the potential to lead to conflict as well as cooperation in areas of mutual interest. For the foreseeable future, convergence is clearly off the table, and no driver from the Eastern or Southern neighbourhood is likely to change this.
Authors: Benett Clifford, Dustin Gilbreath, Justine Louis
Date: December 2017