Analyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI)
Climate change in COP 22: irreversibility of action and rulebook development despite the elephant in the room
Lara Lázaro-Touza – 19.12.2016
The design of the Paris Agreement set the stage for a technical meeting in COP 22 but the stakes were raised in the aftermath of the US election. Implementation, increased ambition and a just transition are the pending tasks.
Eight recommendations for the II National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security
María Solanas Cardín – 20.12.2016
The II National Action Plan for the implementation of Resolution 1325, currently being prepared by the Spanish Government, should build on lessons learnt and include specific measures and best practices if it aims to achieve any advancement in the women, peace and security agenda.
Spain and Israel: are they rivals or complementary?
Alfred Tovias – 22.12.2016
Spain and Israel –both OECD member countries– have been developing over the past three decades in totally different directions. Could it be that the two countries are ignoring each other and missing out on potential complementarities?
Three’s company? France, Germany, the UK and European defence post-Brexit
Daniel Keohane – 5.01.2017
It is vital that France, Germany and the UK cooperate constructively on military matters after the British leave the European Union.
A strategy for Europe’s neighbourhood: keep resilient and carry on?
Sven Biscop – 16.01.2017
If it cannot offer more than building up resilience, the EU risks locking itself out of its own neighbourhood. Would sovereignty and equality not be a better Leitmotiv for its strategy?
Cyprus’s elusive reunification: so near to a solution, yet so far
William Chislett – 19.01.2017
UN-brokered talks to finally reunify Cyprus after 43 years offer hope, but obstacles remain and any deal would have to be approved in referendums on both sides.
Making sense of Europe’s Southern Neighbourhood: Main Geopolitical and Security Parameters
Luis Simón and Vivien Pertusot – 30.01.2017
Europe’s southern neighbourhood is a diverse but interlinked geopolitical ensemble, whose specificities need to be carefully assessed before Europeans devise dedicated security strategies, divide responsibilities and make policy decisions.
William Chislett – 20.12.2016
Spaniards take a poor view of Donald Trump.
Constitutional Court halts Catalan plan for independence referendum.
Spain improves in PISA international education tests.
IMF hails ‘impressive’ economic recovery.
US leisure company plans mega US$2.2bn centre near Madrid.
Europe and China’s New Silk Roads
Edited by Frans-Paul van der Putten, John Seaman, Mikko Huotari, Alice Ekman, Miguel Otero-Iglesias. European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) – 01.2016
This report provides a comparative perspective of China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative (OBOR), as seen from the various European Union member states. The Chinese leadership officially launched this framework in autumn 2013, presenting it immediately as a key national concept and foreign policy priority for the years to come. This report covers the role of OBOR in the relations between China and 14 EU member states, including all larger countries and many middle-sized ones, as seen from the European side. It does so by systematically treating three basic questions across a selection of EU member states and at the EU level itself:
- Which OBOR-related activities exist currently in the host countries and at the EU level?
- What is China’s approach towards individual EU member states with regard to OBOR?
- What are the perceptions and reactions in individual European countries and at the EU level?
This is the second report by the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC). The ETNC members represent major European think tanks and are specialized in analysing China–Europe relations. It is devoted to the study of Chinese foreign policy and European Union (EU)-China relations and facilitates regular exchanges among participating researchers. The Elcano Royal Institute is a member institute of ETNC.
Expert Comments & Others
Will Trump cut a deal with Putin?
Ulrich Speck – 22.12.2016
A deal between Putin and Trump would not change the underlying reality. It is not Western influence which undermines the Kremlin’s influence in the former Soviet space but its failure to deliver the kind of governance people want.
European institutional responses to the recent developments in Turkey: divided in unity?
Ilke Toygür – 23.12.2016
The institutional division between the European Parliament, the Commission and the Council regarding Turkey has become even more visible over the last months. Both Member States and institutions are divided on the steps that are required to be taken.
Italy and Spain: a tale of two countries
Sebastián Puig & Ángel Sánchez – 4.01.2017
While Italy is still more economically powerful than Spain, it displays more structural imbalances and declining trends.
Trump and the defence of Europe
Daniel Keohane – 12.01.2017
No one knows what US President-elect Trump will do in office. Will he cut a geopolitical deal with Russian President Putin? Will he keep American soldiers in Europe? Or worse, even rip up the North Atlantic treaty?
EU-Mercosur: tapping the Atlantic’s potential
Paula Lamoso – 31.01.2017
Although the Mercosur-EU agreement is a first generation FTA, mainly focused on tariff reductions, it is also necessary to highlight its geo-political significance, and potential.
The Spanish Exception: Unemployment, inequality and immigration, but no right-wing populist parties
Carmen González-Enríquez – WP 3/2017 – 13/2/2017
Very few European countries have proven immune to the appeal of right-wing populism. Despite economic crisis and fast-eroding political trust, there is a remarkable absence of an electorally successful Spanish right-wing populist party.
Delayed reaction to ’68
Andrés Ortega – 13.12.2016
In Donald Trump’s US, but similarly exemplified by Brexit and other western societies, there is a ballot-box rebellion among a generation of working and lower-middle class white men (not women), who feel neglected and abandoned by the politics and new values that have been in the ascendant since the 1970s.
A roadmap for sustainable electricity trade between Morocco and Europe
Gonzalo Escribano – 16.12. 2016
At the COP22 meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco and the EU member States France, Germany, Portugal and Spain announced a Joint Declaration on the Establishment of a Roadmap for Sustainable Electricity Trade (SET) between Morocco and the European Internal Energy Market.
Winners and losers in the fall of Aleppo
Andrés Ortega – 20.12.2016
The fall of Aleppo in the hands of the government forces of Bashar al-Assad, with the military support of Russia and Iran, is producing both winners and losers.
Foreign cyber-meddling in domestic elections
Andrés Ortega – 10.01.2017
A great deal of noise, and some deeds, underlie the alleged Russian meddling in favour of Donald Trump in the recent US presidential election.
A map of the future: islands, orbits or communities
Andrés Ortega – 17.01.2017
Every four years, the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) carries out an exercise of the utmost interest looking at world trends.
Rifts in the European Parliament
Andrés Ortega – 24.01.2017
Something has come apart in the European Parliament, and this may end up being a healthy development, although it gives rise to some cause for concern as well.
Trump Demolitions Inc.
Andrés Ortega – 31.01.2017
Having become President, Donald Trump the property developer is now proving to be a master of demolitions, if not of walls at least through issuing executive orders.
From presence to influence: new patterns for the US and China?
Giovanni Grevi – 06.02.2017
A country’s global presence, as defined in the Elcano’s Global Presence Index, is the aggregate product of a range of economic, military and soft variables.
Xi Jinping’s major contradiction: a greater concentration of power but more innovative liberalisation
Andrés Ortega – 07.02.2017
At the forthcoming Communist Party of China (CPC) congress this autumn, the current General Secretary and President of the country may succeed in amassing more power than any of his predecessors.
The Return of Africa
Andrés Ortega – 14.02.2017
The population of Africa has passed the 1.2 billion mark and will double between now and 2050, overtaking China and India combined.