Recent publications by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (Italy)

IAI50

 

Twelve new reports on European Union by the Istituto Affari Internazionali – IAI, December 2016-February 2017 (title, author, abstract, link)

The Future of a More Differentiated E(M)U – Necessities, Options, Choices, by Janis Emmanouilidis, (IAI EU60 paper, 4), February 2017, 13 p.

This paper argues that future EMU reforms will require a higher level of differentiation between Euro and non-Euro countries. However, the creation of a closed core Europe involving merely the “willing and able,” which would establish a two-tier Europe with different institutionalized classes of membership, is neither likely nor desirable. It should not be the Leitbild (guiding concept) steering the way towards a more differentiated Europe. The EU and its members should rather adhere to the notion of functional-pragmatic differentiation by applying instruments of differentiated integration foreseen by the EU Treaties. However, given the experience since 2010, member states are likely to continue to revert to intergovernmental avenues of differentiation outside the EU’s framework. In this case, it would be advisable to make sure that future agreements/arrangements follow the logic and principles of an intergovernmental avant-garde to avoid some of the risks linked to a higher level of cooperation outside the Union’s legal framework.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/future-more-differentiated-emu

 

The EU’s Existential Threat: Demands for Flexibility in an EU Based on Rules, by Adriaan Schout, (IAI EU60 paper, 3) February 2017, 15 p.

Deeper integration is on the agenda to complete the monetary union, to get growth back on track, and to rebuild trust in the EU. It will involve a political union with a fiscal capacity, and it will probably turn EU institutions into state-like bodies. Such centralization might put the integrity of the EU at stake by creating public resistance and a disparity between Euro-ins and Euro-outs. It is also doubtful whether it ensures the long-term competitiveness of the Eurozone. This paper starts from the assumption that the need for a political union results from the inabilities of some national governments to reform and to respect agreed upon rules. It is apparently easier to discuss reforming the Eurozone than to reform a country’s own institutions (“integration by default”). If the root-cause of the Euro crisis lies at the level of member states, then that is where reforms should start. This paper argues that countries unwilling or unable to reform should not demand flexibility on EU-rules, but should instead leave the Union altogether.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/eus-existential-threat

 

The Nexus Between Enlargement and Differentiation, by Barbara Lippert, (IAI EU60 paper, 2) February 2017, 15 p.

This paper explores the nexus between enlargement and differentiated integration set against the background of past experiences and in view of the future of European integration. Although it considers convergence and not differentiated integration to be the underlying concept of enlargement, it also shows that the EU’s enlargement policy involves instruments which allow differentiated treatment. Analyzing the previous rounds of enlargement, the EU system appears to have been robust, coping with temporarily increased degrees of differentiation. However, the author argues against developing new forms of partial membership which would give outsiders a say in decision making. Elaborated types of association are instead advocated. Within the EU, differentiated integration remains the second best option and is not a panacea for better performance, legitimacy or holding the 27 together. In particular the leitmotif of a flexible Union would bear the risk of lengthy internal renegotiations with discontented countries over their terms of membership or even an unravelling of the EU altogether.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/nexus-between-enlargement-and-differentiation

 

Differentiated Integration in Defence: A Plea for PESCO, by Sven Biscop, (IAI EU60 paper, 1) February 2017, 11 p.

In defence, differentiated integration outside the EU framework is prevalent. Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) would allow a group of Member States to deepen cooperation within the treaty. However, if PESCO is activated only to launch initiatives that could also have been taken without it, the opportunity will be wasted. To bring real added value, PESCO must be sufficiently ambitious and make the step from cooperation to effective integration in defence. PESCO must therefore go beyond procurement projects and aim at creating permanent multinational frameworks, within which all participating Member States can anchor their capabilities. The European Defence Fund proposed by the European Commission could function as a strong incentive to that end, if Member States’ contributions to it could be matched by the Commission’s own contribution. Ultimately, PESCO implies a change of mind-set, from national defence planning and interests to common targets.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/differentiated-integration-defence-plea-pesco

 

The Migration Paradox and EU-Turkey Relations, by Bianca Benvenuti, (IAI Working Papers 17|05) January 2017, 22 p.

Since the beginning of the Arab uprisings in 2011 and as a result of growing instability in the region, migration transit through Turkey has become an increasingly pressing issue in Europe. The transit of migrants placed Turkey in a buffer position between the Middle East and Europe, and it soon assumed the role of guardian of the Schengen area, “protecting” it from irregular migration. This, combined with the exponential growth of irregular migration flows – soon dubbed the “migrant crisis” – resulted in migration management becoming a key to the ostensible rapprochement between Turkey and the EU. However, as a result of many paradoxes, migration can also hamper Turkey-EU relations, as is already becoming obvious as relations took a turn for the worse since the summer of 2016.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/migration-paradox-and-eu-turkey-relations

 

The EU and the Korean Peninsula: Diplomatic Support, Economic Aid and Security Cooperation, by Ramon Pacheco Pardo, (IAI Working Papers 17|02) January 2017, 14 p.

The EU has a policy of “critical engagement” with North Korea. This implies that Brussels should not discontinue relations with Pyongyang, but should take an approach in which “carrots” and “sticks” are mixed depending on the behaviour of Kim Jong-un’s regime. Considering this policy, what strategy should the EU follow in relation to developments in the Korean Peninsula? This paper argues that Brussels should take a three-pronged approach. It should offer diplomatic support to South Korea’s policy towards its northern neighbour, continue to provide economic aid to North Korea and engage in cooperation with partners seeking to counter Pyongyang’s threats to international security. This strategy will ensure that the EU has its own, independent voice in the Korean Peninsula – thus making Brussels a more relevant player in East Asian affairs. The strategy also implies that the EU should take a more proactive approach towards the region were the Six-Party Talks (SPT), or a similar diplomatic effort, be restored. This would tie in with the EU’s Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy, as well as with High Representative Federica Mogherini’s willingness to make Brussels a more active player in East Asian affairs.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/eu-and-korean-peninsula-diplomatic-support-economic-aid-and-security-cooperation

 

Governing Europe. How to Make the EU More Efficient and Democratic, by Lorenzo Vai, Pier Domenico Tortola, Nicoletta Pirozzi (eds), Bruxelles, Peter Lang November 2017, 248 p.

This book is a collection of the contributions to the Governing Europe project, which tackles the current situation and the future developments of the European mechanism of governance, putting forward a series of policy and institutional recommendations for the medium and long term, aimed at improving the democratic nature and the effectiveness of the European decision-making processes.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/governing-europe-how-make-eu-more-efficient-and-democratic

 

EU-India: Starting a More Adventurous Conversation, by Shada Islam, (Documenti IAI 16|22) December 2016, 7 p.

Twelve years after they launched their strategic partnership, the EU and India appear ready to take their relationship into new and potentially more adventurous, exciting and mutually beneficial directions. The summit in March 2016 marked the beginning of a more mature and politically relevant dialogue between the EU and India. Implementation of the different priorities set out at the March summit, however, will require time, energy and effort to keep up the momentum. High-level summits should be held regularly – instead of at four-year intervals – so that leaders can maintain contacts and build better relations. New areas of cooperation, including in the security sector, must be strengthened and quickly lead to real action. Given their different histories, identities and priorities, the EU and India will continue to disagree on many issues. Such differences, however, must not become an obstacle to better relations.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/eu-india-starting-more-adventurous-conversation

 

The EU-Turkey March 2016 Agreement As a Model: New Refugee Regimes and Practices in the Arab Mediterranean and the Case of Libya, by Peter Seebert, (Working Papers 16) December 2016, 8 p.

Taking as its point of departure the EU-Turkey agreement of March 2016 regarding refugees and migrants, this paper analyses the main elements of the agreement and discusses whether the deal (or parts thereof) could applied to other contexts. It discusses the relevance of the EU-Turkey agreement to the Arab Mediterranean and more specifically in the context of Libya, as and when political and security conditions in that country improve. The author recognizes that despite relevant criticism of the EU-Turkey deal, the agreement may well contain building blocks worth taking into consideration in future migration negotiations between the EU and the Arab Mediterranean.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/eu-turkey-march-2016-agreement-model

 

EU-India Cooperation on Cyber Issues: Towards Pragmatic Idealism?, by Patryk Pawlak (Documenti IAI 16|36) December 2016, 13 p.

As the two biggest democracies in the world, the European Union and India share many values and principles. Yet, their cooperation in several policy areas is undermined by suspicions resulting from questions about each other’s real intentions and discrepancies between official discourse and concrete policies. The field of cybersecurity cooperation is not immune to these dilemmas. For instance, this is the case in their respective approaches to the multi-stakeholder model of Internet governance, sovereignty in cyberspace and the protection of human rights online (including the right to privacy). In an effort to overcome these differences, this paper calls for “pragmatic idealism” in EU-India relations that could be implemented through network diplomacy that reinforces trust and institutional dialogue needed for closer cooperation. The paper suggests that such network diplomacy could be particularly fruitful in fostering relationships between local authorities and cities, research communities, cyber respondents and track 1.5 diplomacy.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/eu-india-cooperation-cyber-issues-towards-pragmatic-idealism

 

EU-India Defence Cooperation: A European Perspective, by Stefania Benaglia, Alessandro Riccardo Ungaro (Documenti IAI 16|35) December 2016, 17 p.

When looking at the European Defence and Technological Industrial Base (EDTIB) from India – where competition among global defence suppliers is fierce – there is a clear need to step up European coordination and integration. There are a number of mechanisms the European Union can put in place to stimulate a fruitful competition amongst its defence providers and prove the value of EDTIB as a whole. Additionally, EU-India security dialogue can be enhanced by boosting coordination among EU Member States. This paper provides recommendations on how industrial cooperation in the defence sector can serve as a driver to enhance EU-India defence and security cooperation.

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/eu-india-defence-cooperation-european-perspective

 

EU-India Cooperation on Space and Security?, by Isabelle Sourbès-Verger (Documenti IAI 16|38) December 2016, 19 p.

As far as security is concerned, space definitely stands out as a critical emerging issue. Space is considered part of the “Sector Policy Cooperation” in the Agenda 2020 endorsed at the latest EU-India Summit on 30 March 2016, but is not included within the Security section even if it may contribute to some of those objectives. Setting aside the national dimension in defence matters, space cooperation represents an optimal choice for the EU-India Security Dialogue, especially considering global security issues such as climate change, natural disasters, the environment, water management, migrant flows, piracy and terrorism. This paper provides insight into the role and place of cooperation in Indian and EU space policies. It then examines the main opportunities for developing space cooperation towards security on Earth. This raises the issue of security in space while taking into account natural and human threats as a new challenge for the EU-India Dialogue. An analysis of current opportunities will provide policy recommendations in order to initiate a deeper dialogue on this increasingly important dimension of EU-India cooperation.

 

LINK: http://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/eu-india-cooperation-space-and-security

 

Energy Union Watch, No. 6, By Nicolò Sartori and Lorenzo Colantoni, September-December 2016, 26. p.

Index:

Foreword | Nicolò Sartori and Lorenzo Colantoni

Five Guiding Dimensions – Details of the evaluation

  1. Security of Supply: 6/12
  2. Energy Market: 3/12
  3. Energy Efficiency: 6/12
  4. Decarbonisation: 6/12
  5. Research: 6/12

Winter Package Special

Interview | Miguel Arias Cañete

Clean Energy for All: the 2016 Energy Union Winter Package

Roadmap for the Energy Union

LINK: http://www.iai.it/it/pubblicazioni/energy-union-watch-no-6