Spring 2013 Publications from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs

External publicationsFinland

Institute Researchers Timo Behr, Jyrki Kallio, Mika Aaltola, Charly Salonius-Pasternak and Coordinator Maija Salonen recently co-authored a European Parliament report ‘The maritime dimension of CSDP: Geostrategic maritime challenges and their implications for the European Union’.

FIIA Researcher Kristi Raik and the European Policy Centre’s Rosa Balfour have co-edited a publication ‘The European External Action Service and National Diplomacies’ which was published in the EPC Issue Paper series.

The Finnish Journal of Foreign Affairs

The latest issue of the Finnish Journal of Foreign Affairs (Ulkopolitiikka-lehti) came out in early March. This issue focuses on the search for new ideas regarding global democracy as well as ways to enhance the democratic legitimacy of the European Union in crisis. In addition, the issue takes a look at how the Kurds are about to re-draw some of the boundaries in the Middle East, and tries to help the Nordic countries reclaim their lost glory.

Recent publications

All FIIA publications can be downloaded from the Institute’s website.

FIIA Briefing Papers

Antto Vihma: The shale gas boom: The global implications of the rise of unconventional fossil energy

Abstract: The shale gas boom, the recent and rapid commercialization of large-scale shale gas production, has made the US self-sufficient in natural gas and has considerable export potential. Gas is set to become the biggest fuel in the US energy mix and has helped the US to curb its greenhouse gas emissions. Cheap gas is also reinforcing the trend of rising industry investment in the US. The impacts of the US shale gas boom are already being felt in Europe and Asia, for example via cheaper coal. The ‘coal renaissance’ in Europe can still be avoided either by a carbon price or other forms of regulation. Restoring the ability of the European Emissions Trading System to guide investments is the best solution, and can be done simply by setting an adequate emissions cap for the post-2020 period. Globally, the rise of unconventional fossil energy sources means that the energy markets of the coming decades will move towards a more competitive and fragmented order, in which many energy importing countries also utilize significant domestic resources, and are able to balance their imports with regional exporters and the major global players. These developments point to a weakening Russian grip on the European gas market, and problems for Russian export revenues in general. Other states lag far behind the US in shale gas technology, but will try to replicate the US experiment, while Russia will strive to prevent this from happening in its neighbourhood.

Harri Mikkola, Juha Anteroinen & Ville Lauttamäki: The changing European defence market: Will the new European defence market legislation be a game-changer for Finland?

Abstract: The European defence industrial base is transforming. The changes in the European defence market legislation, the decrease in defence materiel demand and changing defence requirements are redefining the industry in a way that has not been seen in decades. The new European legislation in particular poses serious challenges for the Finnish defence industry, including the national market opening and the diminishing possibility for offset arrangements. It is likely that the major European states are trying to protect their own defence industrial base. The future of the Finnish defence industry will be determined by whether the European market opens up in the first place, in part or in its entirety. There is no going back to the time preceding the new legislation. It is crucial for the Finnish defence industry to find and utilize new market opportunities. Networking with the European system integrators and sub-contracting chains will be of paramount importance.

Juha Jokela: David Cameron’s European policy: Britain sidelined by Euroscepticism and the economic crisis

Abstract: Deeply rooted Euroscepticism within some quarters of the British Conservative Party was initially thought to be balanced by the formation of a coalition government with the pro-European Liberal Democrats.

These wishes soon proved to be premature and the British government led by the Conservatives has emerged as a very difficult partner in many fields of EU policy. Prime Minister David Cameron’s weakened support, the European economic crisis and EMU reforms have geared the British European policy towards an increasing awkwardness vis-à-vis its key European partners and prompted a debate on the re-negotiation of Britain’s relationship with the EU. Relatedly, Britain’s position in the EU has weakened significantly. Mr Cameron’s recent speech attempts to re-establish some degree of British authority in the EU, and in the event that he fails, to further distance Britain from the EU. It is uncertain whether the current trend will prevail after the next British general election, slated to be held in May 2015 at the latest.

Mikael Mattlin: Kiinan kasvava vaikutusvalta: Tuovatko taloussuhteet Kiinalle poliittista vipuvartta?

Katri Pynnöniemi: Russia’s defence reform: Assessing the real ‘Serdyukov heritage’

Abstract: The Russian Armed Forces are undergoing a long and expensive reform, which aims at preparing the country to new security threats. The reforms were initiated during the term of the former minister of defence, Anatoly Serdyukov. His dismissal in November 2012 initiated a debate on the future of the reforms. As of yet, the changes made by the new minister of defence Sergei Shoigu are corrections to the existing plan, and not an overall revision of its contours. The most pronounced difference is a shift in favour of domestic military industry.In its current condition, Russia’s defence industry is not able to absorb the major increase in military spending in an efficient manner. From the technological and managerial perspectives, most of the military-industrial enterprises function far below the international average.

FIIA Comments

Hanna Ojanen: Nato-jäsenyys ei ole ihmelääke: Liittoutumisen jälkeenkin Suomelta edellytettäisiin puolustusyhteistyön lisäämistä Pohjoismaiden ja EU:n kanssa

Jyrki Kallio: China in the Year of the Snake: The Chinese remember past humiliations and dream of national rejuvenation

All things bright and beautiful are being promised to the Chinese living under the new party leadership. But is what is good for China also good for the world? The Chinese rhetoric has a victim mentality flavour, and carries the risk that compensating for one’s past inferiority may lead to extreme actions today.

Kristi Raik & Teemu Rantanen: Managing the decline of European diplomacy: More burden-sharing in the EU is needed to counter the cuts in national foreign services

Due to the economic crisis and changes in the international system, European foreign services are facing budget cuts and need to re-focus their functions. They should utilize the potential for burden-sharing with the European External Action Service (EEAS) and its network of 141 EU Delegations.

Arkady Moshes: Saving Putin’s system: Survival tactics become the strategy

Vladimir Putin’s third term as Russia’s president allows us to draw parallels with the USSR under the leadership of Yuri Andropov 30 years ago. Political rights are being suppressed, yet Putin has to tread carefully so as not to step on the toes of the elites. Any ideas of modernizing Russia seem to have been abandoned.

Charly Salonius-Pasternak: Swedish defence illusions are crumbling: The changes in Swedish defence policy necessitate a debate about NATO prior to the Finnish parliamentary elections in 2015

The tornado-like debate in Sweden about the country’s armed forces and defence policy has led to the disintegration of the very cornerstones of Swedish defence policy. Finland should prepare for the possibility of Sweden making rapid changes to its security policy.

Bart Gaens: Japan’s troublesome territory: The entangled history of the three island disputes complicates finding a solution to any of them

Japan has failed to achieve progress in resolving its territorial disputes. The historical legacy and the role of the US, local perceptions of Japan’s wartime past, and the interrelated and contingent nature of the disputes all serve to compound the problem.

Mikael Wigell: Global drug policy is ripe for reform: The emphasis should be on harm reduction instead of law enforcement

The global “war on drugs” has reached a turning point. The EU should seize the opportunity to promote an alternative approach to global drug control. Harm reduction policies need to be extended, while not expecting legalization to solve everything.

Marikki Stocchetti: The UN Blueprint for the Post-2015 Development Agenda: Enabling optimism or true transformation?

The UN responds to the global crisis with a radical proposal. Instead of a traditional donor-recipient approach, it focuses on policy coherence and calls for governments and the private sector to enable global reform. In the absence of strong political commitment, the question remains as to what extent it will succeed.