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May’s Rocky Road Ahead: Why Brexit May Not Happen

In this Occasional Paper published by Social Europe Brendan Donnelly, former MEP and Director of the Federal Trust, argues that the triggering of Article 50 will not be the of the end of the Brexit story. Mrs May is likely to face over the next two years growing obstacles in her path of extricating the UK from the European Union. There is a chance that these obstacles could be so numerous and so severe as to prevent Brexit from happening altogether.

Recent publications from the Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ – Spring/summer 2016

Clingendael

 

Adriaan Schout, The EU must reform, with or without the British, Trouw (Dutch daily), 18 June 2016

The publication is available here.

Adriaan Schout, Jan Rood, Hedwich van der Bij, Michiel Luining, Experts glare into the abyss of the migration crisis, Clingendael Institute, 16 June 2016

The publication is available here.

Adriaan Schout and Hedwich van der Bij, The Juncker Commission and public support for the EU: Doing good or doing the right thing? In: Adam Hug (Ed.), Europe and the people: Examining the EU’s democratic legitimacy, Foreign Policy Center, 15 June 2016

The publication is available here.

Michiel Luining, A strength for Europe: the value of Euroscepticism in current EU debates, Clingendael Institute – EUforum, 20 April 2016

The publication is available here.

Jan Rood, Brexit: the beginning of the end of the EU?, Montesquieu Instituut, 25 May 2016

The publication is available here.

Adriaan Schout, British membership is warmly supported but not much liked, Clingendael Institutue, 19 May 2016

The publication is available here.

Adriaan Schout, Don’t tell the British the consequences of Brexit (now), Dutch Newspaper ‘NRC’, 12 May 2016

The publication is available here.

Adriaan Schout and Jan Marinus Wiersma, The parliamentarisation of the EU’s economic policy, Clingendael Institute, 29 April 2016

The publication is available here.

Michiel Luining, In search for legitimacy, Clingendael Institute – EUforum, 20 April 2016

The publication is available here.

Adriaan Schout, Jan Marinus Wiersma and Mariana Gomes Neto, The European Asscher Agenda, Clingendael Institute – EUforum, 18 April 2016

The publication is available here.

Jan Marinus Wiersma and Michiel Luining, The social Europe the Member States do not want, Clingendael Institute – EUforum, 18 April 2016

The publication is available here.

 

Jan Rood and Michiel Luining, EU Transition towards green and smart mobility, Clingendael Institute, 15 April 2016

The publication is available here.

Adriaan Schout, ‘European narratives: The Netherlands looking for stability’ in: V. Pertusot (ed.), The European Union In The Fog: Building Bridges between National Perspectives on the European Union, Paris: Ifri, April 2016

The publication is available here.

Adriaan Schout and Hedwich van der Bij, Roadmap after Dutch ‘no’ vote, Clingendael Institute – EUforum, 13 April 2016

The publication is available here.

Adriaan Schout, Why a national referendum does not work, but a European one will, Dutch Newspaper ‘Volkskrant’, 8 April 2016

The publication is available here.

Adriaan Schout, The consequences of our ‘No’, Clingendael Institute – EUforum, 7 April 2016

The publication is available here.

TEPSA members’ contributions to the debate on the British referendum

On 23 June, the British citizens will be asked to decide whether or not they want their country to stay in the European Union.

After unsuccessfully applying in 1961 and 1967, the United Kingdom joined the EU in 1973. UK’s membership was already put to a referendum in 1975, when 67 % of the population voted in favour of joining the Union.

Since then, the United Kingdom has always been a sui generis member of the EU, negotiating a number of opt outs from EU legislation and treaties. Such opt outs include: the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), single pieces of legislation relating to Justice and Home Affairs, the Schengen Agreement on the free movement of people, the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU, and the Fiscal Compact.

On 23 January 2013, the British Prime Minister David Cameron promised the UK citizens that a referendum on the British membership in the European Union would be held before 2017. This opportunity was offered by the Lisbon Treaty of 2009, which for the first time envisaged the possibility of a Member State withdrawing from the Union (art. 50 TEU).

On 18-19 February 2016, following a letter by David Cameron to the European Council President Donald Tusk of 10 November 2015, the Heads of State and Government of the EU agreed on a European Council Decision ‘Concerning a new settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union’.

The referendum is scheduled to take place on 23 June 2016.

In the last few months, TEPSA member institutes have extensively analysed the issue of the UK membership and of the upcoming British referendum with a view to providing a valid contribution to the debate on the so-called ‘Brexit’. You can find below an overview of some relevant publications.

Christine Nissen, The awkward squad: why keeping Britain ‘in’ is essential for Danish foreign policy, Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), February 2016

In a new commentary for European Council on Foreign Relations, Christine Nissen discusses the consequences for Denmark if the UK is no longer an EU member. More than ever, Denmark needs the UK as its awkward partner in the EU. Like the UK, Denmark has a qualified engagement with the EU with its four opt-outs and its euro-sceptic public. The two countries share many of the same foreign policy interests and the weight of the UK in the EU system promoting these interests is crucial for “baby-brother” Denmark.

The paper can be accessed here.

Tim Oliver, Why the EU Referendum Will Not be the End of the Story, Federal Trust for Research and Education, February 2016

The forthcoming referendum on the United Kingdom’s continued membership of the European Union will do little to change the UK’s uncertain and unhappy relationship with the Union. It will not settle what David Cameron called ‘the European Question in British politics.’ The issue of Europe in British politics is too multifaceted and shaped by factors that a referendum alone can do little or nothing fundamentally to change. As this pamphlet argues, the referendum is seen too much as an end in itself, rather than one of the means to the end of better managing the issue of Europe in British politics. There is no right question that the issue can be reduced to that can be answered in a way that will resolve it. Therefore whether the result is to remain or leave the EU, the European question will continue to cause tensions for the UK’s party politics, constitutional debates, changing identities, political economy and place within a changing Europe and wider world. It will therefore fail to secure adequate public consent for any new UK-EU relationship, will not end Euroscepticism, or stop the pull of the EU and the tensions this provokes in the UK. Whether in 2016 the British people vote to remain or leave the EU, further referendums on UK-European relations are inevitable.

The paper can be downloaded here.

Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), Puolustusliitto vai yhteistyötä Ruotsin kanssa?, June 2016

What are the EU’s and Britain’s challenges if the British vote for staying in the EU? Teija Tiilikainen and Louis Clerc discussing in Yle Ykkösaamu with Olli Seuri.

The resource (in Finnish) can be accessed here.

Juha Johela (FIIA), Varmaa on vain kaaos – Britannian EU-kansanäänestystä pidettiin HSTV:n keskustelussa hirvittävänä virheenä, June 2016

After Thursday, the only thing certain is chaos. In spite of the outcome. Juha Jokela discussing the UK’s EU referendum in Helsingin Sanomat HSTV.

The resource can be accessed here.

Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), The EU after the UK Referendum, June 2016

Audio and report from FIIA Seminar “The EU after the UK Referendum”. Implications of Brexit and Bremain by IanBond, Nicolai von Ondarza and Jukka Snell.

The audio and the report are available here.

Tony Brown, Brexit: Remain – The new reality?, Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), June 2016

In the ongoing debate on the EU Referendum, attention has been largely devoted to the prospect of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union and to the complex implications of such a development. Less time has been given to discussion of the other potential outcome – a decision to ‘Remain’ in the EU. Such a choice by UK voters does not represent a return to the status quo. The European Council Decision of 18/19 February 2016 ‘Concerning a New Settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union’, while widely dismissed as insignificant, contains a number of provisions of potential importance – for the UK, for the European Union as a whole and, in specific matters, for Ireland. This paper seeks to explain the relevant elements of the European Council Decision, to explore some of the practical issues arising in its implementation, and to discuss the long term implications for British membership of the EU.

The paper can be downloaded here.

Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), Infographic – Forecast for the morning after Brexit, June 2016

This infographic, inspired by Brendan Halligan’s speech at the recent IIEA Brexit conference, illustrates five possible scenarios for the negotiating environment between the UK and the EU in the event of a Brexit, which challenge Mr. Grayling’s comments.

The article can be accessed here.

Tony Brown, Brexit: Northern Ireland Affairs Committee Report, Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), June 2016

On 26 May, 2016, the House of Commons Northern Ireland Committee published its extensive report on Northern Ireland and the EU referendum.

The Committee’s remit is to examine the work of the Northern Ireland Office and matters within the responsibilities of the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. It has thirteen members (5 Conservative; 3 Labour; 2 DUP; I SDLP; 1 UUP; 1 Independent), and is chaired by the Conservative MP, Laurence Robertson. Among the Committee members are the Vote Leave leader, Labour’s Kate Hoey; the former SDLP leader, Alasdair McDonnell; Ian Paisley Jnr and the Independent MP, Lady Hermon. The Committee is divided on the referendum question, with seven backing Leave and six on the Remain side.

The article can be accessed here.

Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), Brexit Brief Issue 07, June 2016

Brexit Brief, published by the IIEA’s UK Project Group, covers developments in the on-going debate in the United Kingdom – and between the UK and the other EU Member States – on the UK’s negotiations over its membership of the Union.

The Brief seeks to provide up-to-date information on the progress and content of the UK re-negotiation and on relevant statements and policy positions – of key individual players, EU institutions, national governments, political parties, business interests and civil society actors.

The Brief is part of a wider communications programme covering the work of the IIEA’s UK Project Group – involving commentaries, speeches, texts and event reports, which will be highlighted on the Institute website.

The brief can be downloaded here.

Gavin Barrett, Brexit: What happens next?, Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), May 2016

Article 50, introduced into the Treaty on European Union by the Treaty of Lisbon, sets out a mechanism for a state which wishes to end its membership of a supposedly ‘ever closer Union’. The purpose of this contribution is to make some brief observations about the role of this article in any process of Brexit which may take place in the wake of a vote to leave the European Union on 23 June next.

The paper can be downloaded here.

Tony Brown, What’s in a phrase? The United Kingdom and Ever Closer Union, Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), March 2016

In recent times, the phrase “ever closer union” has become a pivotal part of the British Eurosceptic argument against the UK’s continued membership of the European Union. The sentiment was even reflected in David Cameron’s EU reform agenda, in which he asked for Britain’s obligation to work towards an ever closer union to be ended, and to do this in a “formal, legally-binding and irreversible way.”

But the phrase, as expressed in the Treaties, is by its nature ambiguous and open to interpretation: for some, it is critical to an understanding of the nature of European integration; for others, little more than a ‘straw man’. In this new paper, IIEA Senior Fellow, Tony Brown, examines the origins and development of “ever closer union”, from the post-war period to the present day.

The paper can be downloaded here.

Paul Gallagher, Brexit: Legally Effective Alternatives, Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), January 2016

In his recent speeches, the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, has softened his stance on the need for Treaty change to accommodate his renegotiation of the terms of British membership of the European Union. Nonetheless, there is no doubt that the demands set out in Mr. Cameron’s 10 November 2015 letter to President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, will still present considerable legal problems if they are to be accommodated.

This new IIEA paper by Paul Gallagher, S.C., former Attorney General of Ireland, presents a comprehensive examination of the feasibility in legal terms of the British demands. Mr. Gallagher argues that legal structures already exist which can provide the necessary legal means to address the British demands – if the necessary political agreement can be obtained.

The paper can be downloaded here.

Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), Britain and Europe: The Endgame – A Postscript, January 2016

In March 2015, the IIEA published Britain and Europe: The Endgame – An Irish Perspective.  The study represented a comprehensive analysis of the possible impact of different levels of engagement or disengagement between the UK and the EU on Ireland, North and South.

This new collection of five essays, with an executive summary by Brendan Keenan, forms a Postscript to Britain and Europe: The Endgame. The publication analyses the key changes in the political landscape since March 2015:  the outcome of the UK election in May 2015; Prime Minister Cameron’s letter to EU President Tusk setting out the four key British demands in a negotiation on EU reform; and the growing importance of security as part of European politics resulting from the refugee and migration crisis and the Paris attacks.

The authors conclude that changing attitudes in the European Council may facilitate an amicable solution with in the European Council on the UK’s reform agenda, if not at the 18-19 February Council then later in 2016. Nonetheless, Mr. Cameron will still have a referendum to win – and the outcome of that latter negotiation, as well as its implications for Ireland and British-Irish relations, remains uncertain.

The paper can be downloaded here.

Ettore Greco, Cameron verso una vittoria di Pirro?, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), June 2016

The article (in Italian), can be accessed here.

Marco Gestri, UE-UK: che relazione dopo l’eventuale divorzio, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), June 2016

The article (in Italian), can be accessed here.

Gian Luigi Tosato, Accordo Uk-Ue a prova di divorzio, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), June 2016

The article (in Italian), can be accessed here.

Roberto Nigido, Se Londra divorzia dall’Ue, poco male, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), June 2016

The article (in Italian), can be accessed here.

Ettore Greco, L’accordo sui nuovi rapporti fra Regno Unito ed Unione europea. Contenuto ed implicazioni, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), April 2016

The paper (in Italian) can be dowloaded here.

Funda Tekin, Brexit or No Brexit? Political and Institutional Implications of an EU without the UK, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), March 2016

The United Kingdom will vote on its fate within the European Union on 23 June 2016. Currently, there is still time to influence the outcome of this referendum – both from the UK and the EU side. The effects of a Brexit need to be closely assessed and communicated. This paper sets out to analyse the implications of different scenarios for Britain’s European future both in institutional and political terms. The main argument is that one way or the other the UK will be inclined to give up on its full membership, and then the EU will have to find the best possible ways to accommodate. Against this backdrop, this paper discusses the implications of differentiated integration, the UK’s role within the EU, British demands for renegotiating its EU membership, and the costs of keeping the UK within the EU or letting it go. The paper recommends agreeing on as much compromise as possible within the existing treaty framework. A Brexit cannot and will not solve current pressing problems of European integration.

The paper can be downloaded here.

Adriaan Schout, The EU must reform, with or without the British, Netherlands Institute of International Relations “Clingendael”, June 2016

Why is it that so many Britons (and others) want to leave the EU? Because the EU has changed. The British are holding up a mirror to us. The tale of the economic benefits is no longer enough to substantiate ever greater integration.

The article can be accessed here.

Jan Rood, Brexit: the beginning of the end of the EU?, Netherlands Institute of International Relations “Clingendael”, May 2016

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave? That is the question on which the British people will have their say in a referendum on 23 June. If a majority vote to leave the EU – the famous Brexit –, that will end more than 40 years of British EU membership. There is wide disagreement on the consequences of such a move. Brexit backers see a bright future in which the United Kingdom, freed from the yoke of Brussels, will regain its sovereignty and economic vitality. The Remain camp believes an exit will lead to economic disaster, the breakup of the UK and even instability on the continent of Europe.

The article can be accessed here.

Adriaan Schout, British membership is warmly supported but not much liked, Netherlands Institute of International Relations “Clingendael”, May 2016

As we know fully well in the Netherlands, referenda are divisive events, nationally and internationally. To deal with their impact, European member states need ample political and diplomatic skills to ensure good relations in the EU. This is essential both in the run up to a referendum as well as afterwards when priorities shift to re-defining relations (e.g. in case of a British ‘leave’) or to deepening commitments (e.g. in case of a ‘remain’). This begs an important question: does the UK have these diplomatic skills? The Dutch-British relationship casts some doubts as to how the UK manages its EU relations.

The article can be accessed here.

Adriaan Schout, Don’t tell the British the consequences of Brexit (now), Netherlands Institute of International Relations “Clingendael”, May 2016

If the British leave the EU after their referendum on 23 June, it will no longer be business as usual. EU leaders have signalled that if European integration is rejected, the British cannot count on continued smooth economic cooperation with the EU.

The article can be accessed here.

Peter van Ham, Brexit: Strategic consequences for Europe. A scenario study, Netherlands Institute of International Relations “Clingendael”, May 2016

This report by Peter van Ham examines Brexit’s strategic consequences for Europe, and the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy in particular.

The paper can be downloaded here.

 

Real Instituto Elcano, Dossier sobre Brexit/Bremain, May 2016

This dossier gathers the latest analyses of Elcano’s researchers on the issue of Brexit. The analyses include:

Araceli Mangas Martín , “Los dilemas del Reino Unido y de la UE: ¿salir o cambiar la Unión?”
Carmen González Enríquez , “Los inmigrantes y el Brexit: una mirada optimista”
Federico Steinberg y Alfredo Arahuetes, “‘Brexit’ tiene una débil justificación económica”
Miguel Otero Iglesias, “Mirando el ‘Brexit’ desde la City: una historia de dinero y poder”
Ignacio Molina, “¿Y si gana el ‘Brexit’?”
Manuel Gracia, “¿Qué fue del Imperio británico? Reino Unido en la globalización”
Salvador Llaudes, “España y el ‘Brexit’”
Robin Niblett, “Britain, the EU and the Sovereignty Myth”
Xenia Wickett, “Brexit Would Be a Further Blow to the Special Relationship”

The full dossier (in Spanish) can be dowloaded here.

Andrés Ortega, Brexit: possible political disasters, Real Instituto Elcano, March 2016

It is commonplace to talk more about the economic impact, but a British exit from the EU (so-called Brexit) could lead to a variety of political disasters.

The article can be accessed here.

Alfredo Arahuetes and Federico Steinberg, The interdependence of the British economy: a contribution to the Brexit debate, Real Instituto Elcano, March 2016

This paper analyses the interdependence of the British economy, both in terms of trade and direct investment, in order to assess the economic justification of a hypothetical Brexit. It concludes that it is difficult to justify the UK’s leaving the EU on the basis of economic arguments. The British economy has extremely close economic ties with the other countries in the EU, which would be jeopardised if Brexit were to go ahead.

The article can be accessed here.

Andrés Ortega, European prose for David Cameron: not much changes, Real Instituto Elcano, February 2016

David Cameron emerged with his spoils. But also to some extent did we. He secured a special status in the EU. But he already had that, and things have scarcely changed. In the final analysis, like Monsieur Jourdain, he has done nothing but talk in European prose, although the British leader, unlike the character in Molière’s Le Bourgeois Gentilhomme, is aware of doing so even though he will not admit to it. The same applies to the European Council, despite the long and fraught negotiations, which sought to ensure that the EU does not start unravelling on this issue (although it is unravelling elsewhere).

The article can be accessed here.

Past events at Real Instituto Elcano – Spring/summer 2016

Elcano

 

Roundtable Discussion “The ASEAN Economic Community: Potentials and Opportunities for all”
20 April 2016

 

Organized by Elcano Royal Institute, Embassy of Vietnam to Spain and Universidad Pontificia de Comillas. Welcome remarks: Julio Luis Martínez Martínez, rector of Comillas Pontifical University. Presented by Charles Powell, director of the Elcano Royal Institute, and Nguyen Ngoc Binh, ambassador of Vietnam to Spain.

More information can be found here.

Seminar “The geopolitics of TTIP”
21 April 2016

 

Organized by Elcano Royal Institute and the Centre for European Reform (CER). Centered around the effects of the TTIP on foreign policy. With a keynote speech by Jaime García Legaz, Deputy Minister for International Trade, Spain.

More information can be found here.

Seminar “Opportunities and challenges in the Western Mediterranean”
21 April 2016

 

Organized by Elcano Royal Institute and Fundación Cajasol. Centered around mutual opportunities in a strategic geoeconomic space, such as the increasing threat of jihadist terrorism in the region. Opening speeches by José Manuel García-Margallo, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Manuel Jiménez Barrios, Vice-president and advisor to the Presidency and to the Local Administration of the Andalusian  regional government; Antonio Pulido, President of the Fundación Cajasol, and Emilio Lamo Espinosa, President of the Royal Institute Elcano.

More information can be found here.

Event: “Brexit, a conversation regarding Britain’s European identity”
28 April 2016

 

Organized by Elcano Royal Institute and University CEU San Pablo. In honour of the publication of the book “Europe United, Eighteen speeches and a letter” by Winston Churchill. With the participation of Belén Becerril, author of the introductory commentary, and Charles Powell, author of the epilogue; accompanied by Simon Manley, British Ambassador in Spain and José María Beneyto, director of the book series, Roots of Europe.

More information can be found here.

Presentation: “Elcano Global Presence Report”
4 May 2016

 

Organized by Elcano Royal Institute. With the participation of Emilio Lamo de Espinosa, president of the Elcano Royal Institute, and Elcano’s analysts Iliana Olivié and Manuel Gracia (coordinators of the Report and members of the Elcano Global Presence Index project), Félix Arteaga (Security and Defence) and Miguel Otero-Iglesias (International Political Economy).

More information can be found here.

12th Edition of #Elcanotalks: “Digital Diplomacy: beyond Twitter and Facebook”
11 May 2016

 

Organized by the Elcano Royal Institute. With the participation of María Eugenia de la Rosa (@EUgeniadelaR), responsible for the European’s Commission Digital Communication (Representation in Spain) and Gonzalo Maldonado (@gmaldonator), Web Manager and Communications for the United Kingdom’s Embassy in Spain.

More information ca be found here.

#ElcanoDebate2 “Reforms and the Future of Cuba”
17 May 2016

 

Organized by Elcano Royal Institute and Fundación Botín. Obama’s recent visit to Cuba and the last Congress of the Cuban Communist Party have placed the spotlight once again on Cuba’s reforms. The debate aims to answer the following questions: Why reforms? What is going to be their outcome? Is there a clear action plan? Is the pace at which they’re being carried out the appropriate one? Are economic and political reforms taking place in parallel? With the participation of Yoani Sanchéz, blogger and Cuban activist, Carlos Alonso Zaldívar, ex-ambassador to Spain in Cuba and Carlos Malamud, Main Analyst for Latin America at RIE.

More information can be found here.

Seminar “Applying Resolution 1325: Women’s leadership, necessary to achieve peace”
26 May 2016

 

Organized by Swedish Embassy in Spain and Royal Institute Elcano. Centered around the effects of the TTIP on foreign policy. With the participation of the Swedish Ambassador Lena Nordström, representative of the new Swedish Network of Female Peace Mediators and Javier Sanabria, General Director for the United Nations and Human Rights at the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation.

More information can be found here.

#ElcanoDebate3 “United Kingdom and the Future of Europe”
30 May 2016

 

Organized by Elcano Royal Institute and Fundación Botín. On 23 June, the UK will vote on whether to stay or leave the European Union. The outcome of this referendum will shape the future of Europe: in this debate, the panelists analysed the arguments given by those for and against the status quo. They also assessed the economic and geopolitical consequences of that outcome, both for the UK and the EU. The participants were Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House; Pedro Schwartz, President, Mont Pelerin Society; Charles Powell, Director, Elcano Royal Institute. Moderated by Andrés Ortega, Senior Research Fellow, Elcano Royal Institute.

More information can be found here.

Presentation: “Spanish-Mexican Relations Paper”
3 June 2016

 

Organized by Elcano Royal Institute. With the participation of Roberta Lajous, Mexico’s Ambassador to Spain, Trinidad Jiménez, Director of Telefonica’s Global Strategy for Public Affairs, Carlos Ávila, Director for  Spain of Alfa Group; Amalia Navarro, Director of Communications for the Ibero-American General Secretary, and Carlos Malamud, Main Analyst for Latin America at RIE.

More information can be found here.

Presentation of Working Document “The pending elections for Spanish Cooperation”
9 June 2016

 

Organized by Elcano Royal Institute. Debate about the possible contribution of Spain to the international aid and development agenda based on the working document which analyses the role of national parliaments in international development, the challenges faced in Latin America and the Medierranean, Spain’s contribution to the international agenda and identification of fourteen challenges. Moderated by Emilio Lamo Espinosa, President of the Royal Institute Elcano and with the participation of Gonzalo Fanjul, ISGlobal, Javier Pérez, CIECODE and Illiana Olivié and Aitor Pérez, researchers at RIE.

More information can be found here.

Past events at the Institute of International Affairs (IIA) at University of Iceland – Spring 2016

IIA Iceland
Open seminar on “Brexit and its implications for Ireland and the EU”
19 May 2016, Institute of International Affairs (IIA), University of Iceland

On 19 May the IIA organised an open seminar with John O’Brennan where he discussed the upcoming referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union and its implications for Ireland and the EU. Mr. O’Brennan holds the Jean Monnet Chair of European Integration at Maynooth University and is the Director of the Maynooth Centre for European and Eurasian Studies. He focuses on European Integration and the EU institutions and, specifically on the process and politics of the EU’s Enlargement policy. He is currently finishing a monograph which examines the EU’s role in the Western Balkans and will shortly begin a project examining the role of the European Commission in the post-accession process in Bulgaria and Romania.

Past events at the Federal Trust for Education & Research – Spring 2016

FedTrust

 

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
20 April 2016, Mary Sumner House, 24 Tufton Street – London SW1P 3RB

This event was jointly organised with Global Britain, an association which believes the UK should leave the EU. It mirrored the UK EU referendum question and featured three speakers from each side followed by a question and answer session.

Speakers arguing to leave:

Lord Lawson, Chairman, Vote Leave

Prof Alan Sked, Emeritus Professor of International History, London School of Economics

Ewen Stewart, Founding Director of Walbrook Economics and Consulting Director of Global Britain

Speakers arguing to remain:

Laura Sandys, former MP and Chair of the European Movement

Professor Stephen Haseler, Director, Global Policy Institute

Graham Bishop, Independent Consultant on EU Integration

More information can be found here.

 

Federalism: the UK’s future?
12 May 2016, Mary Sumner House, 24 Tufton Street – London SW1P 3RB

Launch of the new pamphlet by Dr Andrew Blick.

Further information will soon be published here.

TEPSA Newsletter Editorial April 2016: “The European Union and the United Kingdom: Brexit? or United Forward!”

 Can we imagine a European Commission without a British member?
Can we imagine a Council meeting without a British minister?
Can we imagine a European Parliament without British MEPs?
And, can we imagine TEPSA without a full-fledged British member?

The answer to all these questions clearly is: NO.
The European Union is a safe place to discuss and decide about common and global issues, whether related to economics, security or people.
It makes quite a difference to be member of a family or a related member. We all know that from our personal experiences. It is simply not the same.
Of course, dependent of whether there will be sufficient political will on all sides, one can imagine an alternative construction for the UK like EEA membership, a preferred associate status or something similar. However, again, it is not the same.

That, by the way, is the reason why our General Assembly in Bratislava of 2 June will decide about a proposal of the Board, supported by all TEPSA members being present at the last General Assembly in The Hague in November 2015, to broaden the scope of TEPSA membership: from, as the Statutes are worded now, institutes established in ‘Member States of the EU’ to institutes established in ‘European’ countries. Indeed, for European academics dealing with EU studies it is better to be fully involved than to be ‘associated’ to the work of others.

In fact, the European Union is a peace project. We aim at creating conditions of peace, stability and prosperity for all our citizens. It is the old narrative of EU cooperation. Many politicians ask these days for a new narrative, more appealing to younger generations. However, the original one still has its merits. On a daily basis issues appear on our agenda which individual states cannot handle anymore alone. Whether it is trade, the economic crisis, the migration crisis, terrorism or the geopolitical tensions at all our external borders (Russia/Ukraine, the Middle East, and North Africa).

Problems arising during internal EU negotiations have to be solved by elaborating compromises, eventually in the form of formulas of differentiation and flexibility. In fact, to a large extent it is due to the British position in EU cooperation that we have already developed an extensive practice of differentiated approaches (in the domain of the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice and the Euro cooperation for example).
Because of the differences with regard to economic and political orientation already existing between the present Member States and, still more evidently, between the present and candidate Member States, differentiated cooperation is the model for the future, whether we like it or not. Moreover, is ‘Unity in Diversity’ not the motto of the European Union? As long as differentiated solutions do not interfere with the basic principles and the core acquis of the Union, they have to be accepted. In that respect the New Settlement elaborated for the United Kingdom by the European Council in its meeting of 18/19 February reflects a careful balance.

Last but not least, sovereignty these days is an illusion. The world has become a global village, our economies have become interdependent and communication is organised through ultra-fast networks.
Therefore, again, we better share responsibilities to cope with common challenges rather than have to deal with them on our own. From such a global perspective, the United States – with its President, Barack Obama, as its best spokesperson – is  the first to agree that the United Kingdom has its place in Europe, in the (perhaps not perfect, but all the same) stable framework of the European Union.

So, let us hope that common sense will prevail on 23 June when the referendum in the United Kingdom will take place. Let us hope for the best result, for Europe and the United Kingdom!

Prof. Jaap de Zwaan, TEPSA Secretary-General

THESEUS Final Conference, 17-18 March 2016, Cologne: “The European Union between integration and disintegration – Reflections on the last decade and beyond”

THESEUS2

For more than 50 years, European integration has been called a success story built up around the narrative of an ‘ever closer Union’. Since the financial and economic crisis, however, a serious concern of disintegration has been striking the European Union. Possible scenarios range from a collapse of the EU system to fragmentation, differentiation, and partial disintegration. Exit schemes like Grexit and Brexit are openly discussed, tendencies of renationalisation arise. External pressures reinforce this trend. In view of these manifold challenges, how might Europe’s future look like?

The THESEUS conference dealt with a reflection on the past and current crises taking place in and around Eurotheseus ape, and discussed if and how those have been working as catalysts for further institutional, economic or political integration or caused steps of disintegration. It discussed a set of theoretical understandings, concepts, and definitions of the disintegration phenomenon itself as well as possible causalities and interplays between integrative and disintegrative processes.

More than 100 international academics, politicians, young researchers, and the interested public discussed past and possible future developments of European integration and disintegration processes at the Fritz Thyssen Foundation in Cologne. They found that challenges at hand ask for new political and scientific approaches – leaving some speakers more optimistic than others regarding the EU’s future.

theseus wessels“In EU politics, we have been involved in a lot of subjects, but probably reflected too little on possible crises and adequate reactions to them”, stated Chairholder Wolfgang Wessels, University of Cologne, in his opening remarks. He described the conference as a floor to reflect crises like a possible ‘Brexit’ or ‘Grexit’, tendencies of renationalization and the success of anti-EU parties or the refugee movement towards Europe to better understand such challenges and contribute to an envisaged peaceful future European cooperation.

Defining the term ‘crisis’

Defining the often randomly used term ‘crisis’ was a first step to do so. Hartmut Kaelble, Humboldt-University Berlin, distinguished between five types of crises and positioned the EU in the second most challengeable: a crisis in which both governments and the public are involved. “We are thus not in the worst position contrasting to times after the Second World War in which we faced a system crisis”, concluded the Historian.

Johannes Pollak, Institute for Advanced Studies, stated that the EU has always been about crisis management and that it is even crucial for readjustments to its set-up. The tricky element though was that external developments such as conflicts in Syria or Ukraine affected the EU making it more difficult for the Union to react than to internal conflicts only.

theseus umbachGaby Umbach, European University Institute, illustrated a two-fold picture: On the one hand the EU facing manifold fields of conflicts around EU politics and on the other hand the – despite growing radicalisation among a minority group – relatively positive perception of EU citizens towards the EU environment. She called for the often raised necessity of improved citizen-involvement to solve the conflictual situation at hand ending with a quite optimistic picture.

Reflecting characteristics of the institutional architecture of the Union

theseus neuholdTalking about institutional characteristics of EU crisis management, the panellists stressed a rising importance of intergovernmental decision-making among heads of state or government. This in turn circumvented political debate probably resulting in “more efficiency vis-à-vis less legitimacy” as Christine Neuhold, Maastricht University, questioned when showing the rising number of Trilogues, in which a limited group of representatives of European Commission, Council, and European Parliament arrive at political solutions.

theseus monarJörg Monar, College of Europe, spoke of shrinking impact of European Parliament and Council – despite more competences following the Lisbon Treaty (2007) – due to ‘last-minute decision-making’. Olivier Rozenberg, Sciences Po Paris, presented a recent study depicting shrinking numbers of legislation and Philippe de Schoutheete, Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, illustrated the trend towards informal meetings by the example of talks on the maintenance of the Eurozone.

Discussing conflicts in the EU’s neighbourhood

How crucial a higher attention for developments beyond EU borders and a more active engagement of the EU in solving conflicts in Syria, Libya or between Russia and Ukraine was, stressed for instance Atila Eralp, Middle East Technical University, or Christopher Hill, University of Cambridge. Eralp stated the high potential of the EU in creating partnerships. He called for a more consistent position in EU-Turkey relations. Hill reminded the audience of the ‘mistake’ to address domestic and foreign policy separately.

Outlining possible exits of single member states and EU fragmentation

With regards to possible exits of EU member states resulting from the many facets of challenges surrounding EU politics, Brigid Laffan, European University Institute, warned of domino effects, in which further countries might follow for instance the exit candidate United Kingdom (UK). She moreover addressed exit consequences regarding a new power balance in the EU, in case UK as “critical counter balance” left the Union.

theseus tekinFunda Tekin, Institut für Europäische Politik and Centre international de formation européenne, illustrated that exits on the other hand might also lead to more integration in terms of a ‘core Europe’ and Frank Schimmelfennig, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, presented differentiated integration as a tool for an ‘ever closer Union’.

theseus beggThe official part of the conference was closed with the concluding remarks of THESEUS Chairperson Wolfgang Wessels, University of Cologne, and Iain Begg, London School of Economics and Political Science. Both interpreted the topics on the conference agenda as a sign for the need to actively address problems at hand before action was too late, and to redefine theoretical models of European integration to better address processes of differentiation and disintegration. Wessels furthermore stressed the importance for a continuation of research and teaching to improve the understanding of EU politics and a potential engagement.

Keynote speech and award ceremony

theseus sussmuthAgainst the background of the current crisis situation keynote speaker Rita Süssmuth, former President of the German Bundestag, appealed repeatedly: “We must communicate much more”, looking back at many years of involvement in exchange with national and EU political actors. “Today’s politicians need to pay more attention the values and benefits of our community as has been done by heads of state or government in the Union’s earlier years”. She supported the course of Chancellor Angela Merkel in the refugee movement towards Europe – one of the EU’s most pressing ‘crises’. “No quick solution is at reach – therefore it’s best to say we work on it”.  Central elements of that work are engagements in shrinking the percentage of unemployment and social exclusion, argued Süssmuth.

After her speech, the THESEUS Awards were remitted. Joseph Weiler, President of the prestigious European University Institute in Florence, received the THESEUS Outstanding Award for his many years of outstanding engagement in European integration research. The THESEUS Promising Award went to the two junior scientists Leonhard den Hertog, Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, and Martin Mendelski, University of Trier.

More information about the THESEUS project

 

Past events at the Prague Institute of International Relations (IIR) – Spring 2014

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International conference sponsored by the International Visegrad Fund on “The Visegrad Group in the Post-Lisbon EU: Getting Closer to Move Further”, 30 April 2014, IIR

The international conference sponsored by the International Visegrad Fund on “The Visegrad Group in the Post-Lisbon EU: Getting Closer to Move Further” took place on 30 April 2014 and is co-organised by IIR, HIIA, PISM, SFPA (The Institute oV4_logosf International Relations in Prague in cooperation with the Polish Institute of International Affairs, the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and the Slovak Foreign Policy Association). The event will take place on Wednesday, 30th April 2014 and sumed up the findings of a two and a half year project carried out with the support of the International Visegrad Fund. The conference also expanded the horizon so that all the relevant themes were considered through the prism of the 10 year anniversary of the EU membership of the V4 countries.
Zoltán Gálik of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs in Budapest; Agata Gostynska of the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw; Roderick Parkes of the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw; Anita Sobják of the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw and Tomáš Strážay of the Research Center of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association in Bratislava appeared among the distinguished speakers. Report.

Public lecture by Graham Avery on: “Will Britain Leave the European Union?“, 29 April 2014, the Institute of International Relations, Prague

The Institute of International Relations organised a public lecture with a subsequent discussion by Graham Avery – a Member of St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford; a Senior Adviser at the European Policy Centre, Brussels; and an Honorary Director General of the European Commission. The lecture will was held on April 29 in the IIR.

Panel discussion on “Promoting Participatory Democracy in Bosnia and Herzegovina”, 24 April 2014, the Institute of International Relations 

The panel discussion was organised together with the Directorate General for Enlargement of the European Commission.

IPA_EC_logo_2The sustainable social development of South East Europe is crucial not only for the political and social stability of the region, but also for the entire European Union. The objective of this event was to present, assess and mutually learn from the diverse experiences of the donors and implementers of EU and bilateral projects, notably those under the umbrella of the EU’s Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance (IPA) and the transition policy and development cooperation of the Czech government. The ultimate goal of the event, which as held on 24 April 2014 at the IIR, was to find synergies between the European and Czech instruments in this context. Among the speakers were Henk Visser (Programme Manager, Unit D3, Regional Programmes, DG Enlargement, European Commission) and Namik Hadzalic, the LOD Capacity Development Coordinator.

Editorial: Brexit?

BrexitBrexit? 

by Jean-Paul Jacqué

The announcement of the British Prime Minister’s speech has revived speculation about a possible withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. The TV channel Arte has even broadcasted a fictional documentary on the subject. After the speech, reactions were more cautious notably because the matter has been postponed until after the next elections. The agreement was reached at least that the British people should decide themselves about their future. [Read more…]

Recent publications from Real Instituto Elcano – Spring/summer 2016

Elcano

 

Guy Edwards and Lara Lázaro, Spanish investors can capitalize on the low-carbon transition in Latin America, 25 April 2016

The implementation of the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) offer significant opportunities for Spanish investors while supporting Latin American countries in the achievement of low-carbon and resilient development. Institutional, knowledge and infrastructure challenges require attention to maximise these opportunities.

The publication can be accessed here.

William Chislett, Inside Spain nº127 28th March- 25nd April, 24 April 2016

Table of contents: Spain heading to new elections. Panama Papers claim the head of Industry Minister. Spain ranked above UK and US in press-freedom index. Spain to be given more time to meet EU’s budget deficit threshold.

The paper can be downloaded here.

Iliana Olivié and Manuel Gracia, Elcano Global Presence Index Report, 04 May 2016

The 2016 edition of the Elcano Global Presence Index ranks 90 countries according to the extent to which they are currently ‘out there’, participating in and shaping the process of globalization. In addition to the incorporation of 10 new countries (Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Kenya, Myanmar, Tanzania, Turkmenistan, Uruguay and Uzbekistan) and adjusting the weighting given to each variable (according to the international experts’ criteria resulting from a survey conducted in 2015), this year’s edition highlights the following results: China jumps to second position while Europe stagnates, the collapse of commodities prices affects the emerging economies. The added value of global presence of all 90 countries for which this index is calculated barely grows in 2015, which could indicate the stagnation of the globalization process. After years of increasingly disperse global presence, we are now seeing a re-concentration of external projection. The results of a survey conducted in 2015 shows the extent to which foreign policy specialists have changed their worldview. The world now looks ‘harder’ than it did in 2012.

More information about the publication can be found here.

William Chislett, Inside Spain nº128 25th April- 23nd May, 24 May 2016

Table of contents: Acting Foreign Minister lays foundations for new relation with Cuba. Spain holds firm in Elcano Global Presence Index. New left-wing alliance ‘set to overtake’ Socialists in June’s election. Madrid wins reprieve after breaking EU budget rules. PSA Group and Renault announce €1.3 billion of investments.

The paper can be downloaded here.

Iliana Olivié and Aitor Pérez, Fourteen dilemmas for Spanish development aid in the new incoming parliament, 08 June 2016

The future of Spanish policy on international development cooperation requires a series of dilemmas to be politically addressed; these concern, for example, the geographical distribution of aid, the connection between development policy and other strands of foreign policy and the appropriate combination of instruments (bilateral, multilateral) and actors (public administrations, NGOs, companies…).

The publication can be accessed here.

Carmen González Enríquez, Highs and lows of immigrant integration in Spain, 13 June 2016

Spain can boast of having integrated a wave of migrants of singular size and intensity into its society. It is still, however, a long way from the countries where first-generation immigrants and their offspring have secured prominent roles in public life.

The publication can be accessed here.

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Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator – And Western protectionism came to pass…in a world of digital flows, 19 April 2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator – Obama, the nuclear weaponising deweaponiser, 26 April 2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator – The plot against Europe, 3 May 2016

Miguel Otero-Iglesias, The euro: an orphan who no longer needs his parents?, 9 May 2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator – Woman with leadership skills needed for complex global organisation, 10 May 2016

William Chislett, Spain holds firm in the Elcano Global Presence Index, despite economic crisis, 11 May 2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator – Why people join ISIS, 17 May 2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator – Is Hugo Chávez still there?, 24 May 2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator – Careful about making Russia the enemy, 31 May 2016

Gonzalo Escribano, The Future of Natural Gas in South America, 3 June 2016

Miguel Otero-Iglesias, Brexit talk is pushing the City of London closer to Frankfurt, 6 June 2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator – Is China a market economy?, 7 June 2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator – Everyone’s off to a Warsaw under scrutiny, 14 June 2016

Past events at Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) – Winter 2015/16

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Mercator European Dialogue – EU strategic vision workshop
26 February 2016, Rome

Workshop hosted by IAI in the framework of the Mercator European Dialogue project. In an ever more complex and connected world, defining a common strategic vision for the EU as a global actor has become an urgent priority. In this context, the European Council has mandated the High Representative and Vice President of the Commission, Federica Mogherini, to draft an EU Global Strategy on foreign and security policy. Our workshop provided the chance to explore the content of this strategy review as illustrated by Nathalie Tocci, Deputy Director of the IAI and Special Advisor to the HRVP Federica Mogherini, pen-holder of the EU Global Strategy. MPs had the opportunity to discuss priorities and contribute to the debate on the EU’s global role.

European Union Institute for Security Studies-IAI joint conference on “Europe & Africa: A strategic approach”
17-18 February 2016, Paris

“Energy Union: from birth to maturity”, round table organized in cooperation with the College of Europe, Bruges
22 January 2016, Bruges

Between power and rules: The geopolitics of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership“. Conference organised in cooperation with the Centre for European Reform, London.
18 January 2016, Rome

EU relations with Latin America. From social resilience to global governance“. Conference organised in cooperation with European Union Institute for Security Studies, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, EU Global Strategy and Compagnia di San Paolo.
15 January 2016, Rome

Civili in missione. L’esperienza italiana nelle missioni dell’Unione Europea“. Conference on the civilian missions, in cooperation with the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.
17-18 December 2015, Rome

Conference on “A new European Neighbourhood Policy in a changing strategic environment in cooperation with the Polish Embassy in Rome.
9 December 2015, Rome

The Energy Union: towards an effective European energy policy: Conference with Maroš Šefčovič, European Commission Vice President for Energy Union.
4 December 2015, Rome

Quale governo per l’Ue? Presentation of the volume What Form of Government for the European Union and the Eurozone?  edited by Federico Fabbrini, Ernst Hirsch Ballin, Han Somsen (Hart Publishing, Oxford, 2015), Meeting within the cycle “The future of the European economy” in collaboration with the Center for Studies on Federalism.
4 December 2015, Rome

Italy and the renegotiation of the UK’s EU membership, Conference with Philipp Hammond, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, followed by a roundtable with a panel of Italian and British experts.
25 November 2015, Rome

The European Union and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Managing Globalization?“, Conference with Pascal Lamy, President Emeritus of the Notre Europe-Jacque Delors Institute and former Director-General WTO, in collaboration with LUISS-School of Management e German Marshall Fund of the United States.
25 November 2015, Rome

Challenges to European Security: A Transatlantic perspective, Transatlantic Security Symposium (8th edition).
26 October 2015, Rome

China-Europe relations and the role of Italy”, Conference organised in cooperation with T.wai, Turin, and the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), Beijing, and with the support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the China Embassy in Italy.
22-23 October 2015, Rome

“Eurozone: getting back to growth?”; presentation of the book by Alberto Majocchi “Un piano per l’Europa” (Feltrinelli, 2015) in cooperation with Centro Studi sul Federalismo, Turin, and Aiace
20 October 2015, Rome

Conference  with  Mario Monti  (former Italian Prime Minister and chairman of the EU High Level on Own Resources) on Which resources for the European Union and Eurozone budget?. In collaboration with the Center for Studies on Federalism.
19 October 2015, Turin

Past events at the Prague Institute of International Relations (IIR) – Spring 2016

Prague Institute of Intl Relations

Expert public discussion on “Migration: An Opportunity, Not a Threat?”
25 April 2016, the Institute of International Relations Prague

 

IIR Embassy of Canada logo
IIR Centre for European security logoIIR Centre for International Law

 

 

 

The Centre for European Security and the Centre for International Law of the Institute of  InternIIR FrancoisCrepeauational Relations Prague, in cooperation with the Canadian Embassy, are the organizers of an
expert public discussion with François Crépeau, Professor and Hans and Tamar Oppenheimer Chair in Public International Law, McGill University and United Nations Special Rapporteur on the
Human Rights ofMigrants. The questions framing the discussion are, for example: Why should Europeans organize rather than prevent migration to Europe? Why is there so much opposition to and fear of inward migration? Is this justified? What benefits and opportunities do migrants bring? Migration also brings challenges – (how) can we deal with them? What lessons should we learn from dealing with migration in the past?

Public lecture on “The Use of Force Against ISIS: Is International Law Changing?”
31 March 2016, the Institute of International Relations Prague

 

The Institute of International Relations Prague was proud to host a public lecture by the well-known international law expert Prof. Dr. Anne Peters, LL.M., Director of the Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law in Heidelberg, followed by the launch of the new Centre for International Law of the Institute of International Relations Prague. The events took place on 31 March at the Institute of International Relations Prague. Videos from the lecture and the launch are available at the event’s website.

Seminar on “China’s One Belt One Road Initiative and Central Europe”
23 March 2016, the Institute of International International Relations Prague

 

The Institute of International Relations Prague, together with the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), Beijing, organized a seminar on “China’s One Belt One Road Initiative and Central Europe”.

Out of the range of interesting contributors and contributions to the seminar, let us mention Prof. Kong Tianping, Senior Researcher of the Institute of European Studies, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and his contribution “The Belt and Road Initiative and Its Implication for Cooperation between China and the Visegrad States”; Prof. Liu Zuokui, Director of the Department of Central and Eastern European Studies, the Institute of European Studies, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, with his presentation “How Chinese Perceive the V4 and China–V4 Relations”; and also Prof. Chen Xin, Director of the Department of European Economic Studies, the Institute of European Studies, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and his lecture “The Czech Republic in the 16+1 Cooperation.”

Roundtable on “Brexit and EU Foreign Policy: The View from Other Member States”
9 March 2016, London School of Economics and Political Science

 

On 9 March 2016 Petr Kratochvíl, Director of the Institute of International Relations Prague, spoke, together with Ben Tonra, Stephen Keukeleire, Annegret Bendiek and Christian Lequesne, at a roundtable focusing on the topic of “Brexit and EU Foreign Policy: The View from Other Member States” at the prestigious London School of Economics and Political Science. You can find a report from the event at the event’s website.

Public lecture on “The Helplessness of German and European Refugee Policy”
24 February 2016, the Institute of International Relations Prague

 

The Institute of International Relations Prague organized a public lecture with a subsequent discussion with Prof. em. Dr. Egbert Kurt Jahn dealing with issues connected to refugees, the German stance toward them and why Germany’s attitude in this respect is so different to that of other EU Member States.

PADEMIA Workshop: “The impact of referenda on parliamentary democracy”, Brussels 19-20 September 2016

PADEMIATEPSA organised the final workshop in the framework of the PADEMIA project under the lead of Dr Julie Smith (University of Cambridge).

The workshop, which took place on 19-20 September 2016, focused on the impact of referenda on parliamentary democracy, notably in the light of the recent Brexit vote. It looked in particular at the interaction of plebiscitary and parliamentary democracy, with reference to the UK as well as other recent referendum experiences, and at the consequences of the UK’s vote to leave the EU for the United Kingdom itself, the European Union and other EU Member States.

The programme of the workshop can be downloaded here.

The report of the workshop is available here.

Past events at Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) – Spring/summer 2016

IAI50

 

Is the European Council fit to Govern?”
20 April, Rome

 IAI2

Seminar with Wolfgang Wessels, Director, Centre for Turkey and European Union Studies, University of Cologne, author of the book “The European Council”.

More information about the event is available here.

“The Brexit Vote: Domestic Debate and Global Implications”
11 May 2016, Rome

Seminar with Michael Cox, Director of LSE IDEAS and Emeritus Professor of International Relations at London School of Economics.

The list of speakers is available here.

Migration and Foreign Policies. The Search for a Better European Governance”
12 May 2016, Rome

 Conference within the framework of the New-Med research network.

The programme of the event is available here.

“New Pact for Europe. Rebuilding Trust Through Dialogue”
9 June 2016, Rome

Conference within the framework of New Pact for Europe research project. With the participation of Sandro Gozi, Under-Secretary for European Affairs in the office of Prime Minister.

The programme of the event is available here.

“About Brexit. In or out? And Us?”
13 June 2016, Rome

Conference on the perspectives and consequences of the British referendum of 23 June 2016.

The programme of the event is available here.

“Governing Europe: How to Make the EU More Efficient and Democratic”
16 June 2016, Brussels

Conference within the framework of the Governing Europe project in cooperation with Centro Studi sul Federalismo and Open Society European Policy Institute.

The programme of the event is available here.

More information about the project can be found here.

 

“Italy’s Foreign Policy. Fifty years of the Istituto Affari Internazionali”
23 June 2016, Rome

Debate on the occasion of the launch of the book edited by Cesare Merlini and published by Il Mulino (Working language: Italian, with no translation).

The programme of the event (in Italian) is available here.

Future of Britain in Europe Commission’s final report just published

LSE

The final report of the LSE Commission on the Future of Britain in Europe was published on 7 June 2016.

TEPSA Board Member Iain Begg was one of the driving forces behind the Commission, whose aim was to inforbeggm the national debate on Britain’s membership of the European Union, with high quality, evidence-based and balanced analysis, and to meet the public need for reliable information in the run-up to the national referendum on the renegotiated terms of Britain’s EU membership.

The work of the Commission has concentrated on a series of expert hearings convened by LSE academics.

Each convenor produced a report of their hearing which has contributed to a final Overview and Summary of reports, which sets out an overall assessment of the case for continued British EU membership or a Brexit.

The LSE Commission’s Overview and Summary of Reports is available here.

The single detailed reports are available here.

Past events at the Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ – Spring 2016

Clingendael
Brexit debate: to stay or to go, is that the question?

15 April 15 2016, Huis van Europa, The Hague

The Netherlands Society for International Affairs (NGIZ) and the European Movement in the Netherlands (EBN) recently organised the high-level paneldiscussion on the UK EU Referendum.

In the wake of the recent migration crisis, the economic and financial turbulance and the violence increasing in and around Europe, the pressures on European cohesion are rapidly mounting. In a hyperconnected world, many people feel uncertainty about Europe’s future. The UK EU referendum – scheduled for June 23 this year – echoes all these concerns and more.

One thing is certain: the choice of UK citizens will affect us all.

We have therefore asked three international expert observers to enlighten us on facts and fiction in the current UK referendum debates, and the price we would pay if the UK were to leave the EU.

  • Prof. Iain Begg (London School of Economics) on the financial and economic consequences of any Brexit;
  • John McLellan (Director Scottish Newspaper Society, former editor of The Scotsman and member of the Infacts.org presscircle) on the current media coverage of the UK referendum and
  • Isabella Schwarz (European Cultural Foundation) on the wider cultural implications of the UK leaving the EU.

More information can be found here.

Winning coalitions for energy security and green growth in Kenya

19 April 2016, Nairobi, Kenya

This expert meeting aimed to bring together decision-makers and key stakeholders from Government of Kenya, private sector and civil society in order to explore from multiple perspectives the potential reach and implementation of green growth plans in Kenya.

Green growth is increasingly gaining traction as a way to reconcile lasting and broad-based economic growth with climate change mitigation and the goal of sustainable development. As a crucial means to achieve green growth, the energy sector is a central concern. Kenya is a party to the UNFCCC process and is committed to tackling climate change as viewed from its various policies and programmes. Kenya also submitted its INDC to the UNFCCC in July 2015 and sets out an emission reduction target of 30% by 2030 compared to its business-as-usual scenario.

Kenya Vision 2030 and the Second Medium Plan 2013-2017 identify energy as one of the infrastructure enablers for transformation into “a newly-industrialising, middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens in a clean and secure environment.” Access to competitively-priced, reliable, quality, safe and sustainable energy is essential for achievement of the Vision.

Constraints in energy supply
Currently, there are constraints in energy supply, which include low access to modern energy services, high cost of energy, irregular supply and high cost of energy investments. About 87% of the country’s domestic energy demand is met by biomass. Kerosene based lighting continues to be the leading source of illumination at the household level. Access to modern energy services is required to reduce the wood fuel and kerosene dependency. The draft National Energy and Petroleum Policy (NEPP) states that as of June 2014, 32% of Kenyans had access to electricity. A study commissioned by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum in 2014 established that Kenya has one of the highest connection charges leading to low access to electricity supply. Despite the successful electrification of public facilities in rural areas, most neighbouring households largely remain unconnected. The NEPP goes on to state that “going by the current pace at which connections are being effected, the achievement of 70% universal access to electricity by 2020, will not be possible without a paradigm shift in the electrification strategy.”

Hence, Kenya requires additional generation capacity to meet growing demand, reduce energy costs and diversify generation mix to minimise risks associated with overreliance on one source of energy. In this respect, geothermal  and wind energy appear most promising. New policies, including Kenya’s National Energy Policy 2014 (as part of Vision 2030 framework) and the Least Cost Power Development Plan aim to increase geothermal and boost energy security. With a focus on the diversification of energy sources, they entail a risk of potentially increasing GHG emissions and it is not yet clear if sufficient incentives are offered to further encourage private sector participation. At the same time, Kenya has discovered coal and oil for which exploration has been going on since 2013.

Platform
This expert meeting aimed to bring together decision-makers and key stakeholders from Government of Kenya, private sector and civil society in order to explore from multiple perspectives the potential reach and implementation of green growth plans in Kenya. On this basis, the meeting provided a platform to discuss the connections between green growth and energy security concerns, as well as with Kenya’s integration in the global economy, its national development trajectory, and its policies towards poverty reduction and (regional) stability. A critical part of the meeting explored how and whether legitimate energy security arguments, such as these related to improving energy access, form an obstacle to green growth, or whether new opportunities are arising for “winning coalitions” for a new style of development as the new renewable energy boom kicks off across Africa.

The links meeting explored the relationship between green growth and Kenya’s emission reduction commitments as submitted under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement of 2015. A key objective was to gather expert opinions on the viability of Kenya’s current commitments to climate change mitigation, and what might be reasonably expected of Kenya in the future.

More broadly, the meeting was an opportunity for different stakeholders to discuss various strategic, future-oriented questions in their field of work. The ideas and contributions of participants expressed during the meeting will be incorporated into ongoing research by the Clingendael Institute and the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands into the potential for and constraints on green growth in major developing countries. It will also provide input for policy-makers in Europe working on the Paris Agreement.

More information can be found here.

Recent publications from Real Instituto Elcano – Spring 2016

Elcano

 

William Chislett, Inside Spain nº125 20th January- 22nd February. 22.02.2016. Spain to contribute €153 million to migration fund for Turkey. Countdown to the investiture of a Socialist Prime Minister. Spain records its worst score in corruption index, Popular Party hit by more scandals. New government, whenever there is one, faces big budget hole. CAF wins £490 million rolling-stock contract in UK.

Miguel Otero-Iglesias, How to strengthen the G20: Spain’s multilateral perspective. 25.02.2016. In the context of slow growth, destabilizing capital flows and currency wars, the G20 must develop joint solutions to overcome common problems. The threats faced are protracted rather than punctual and not easy to explain, which has dampened the sensation of urgency. The resulting inactivity has fed two intertwined dangers: the return of protectionist and nationalist policies and the formation of rivaling blocs

Miguel Otero-Iglesias, Sebastián Royo and Federico Steinberg, The Spanish financial crisis: Lessons for the European Banking Union. 01.03.2016. This report examines the Spanish banking crisis and uses it to extract valuable lessons for the construction of the European Banking Union (EBU), which is a complex process that resembles in some respects the variety of actors and preferences encountered in the Spanish case.

Jessica Almqvist, ‘Even war has rules’: a call for global action to protect civilians. 02.03.2016. There is an urgent need to address in a comprehensive manner the problem of systematic and flagrant violations of international humanitarian and human-rights law in ongoing conflicts, including its sources and implications. More specifically, possible lines of action to counter the growing importance of non-state armed actors and the use of explosives in populated areas must be discussed. A Global Action Plan on how to prevent, repress and redress serious violations of international law in armed conflict, taking into account the present and future role of UN peace missions, is a must.

Salvador Llaudes and Ignacio Molina, Spain’s stance on Cameron’s negotiations. 02.03.2016. Spain is finalising its stance on the negotiations being conducted by the European institutions to restrict the chances of a so-called ‘Brexit’. Some parts of the offer put forward by the President of the European Council are of concern from an integrationist perspective, but the proposal provides a good basis for arriving at a position that is agreeable to the 28. It is in the strategic interest of the EU in general, and of Spain in particular, to avoid ‘Brexit’. Therefore, so long as none of the red lines set in the various sections of the negotiations are breached, Spain will not raise objections when it comes to forming a consensus. The special circumstances surrounding these negotiations, particularly on the domestic Spanish stage, raise a series of procedural issues that shall also be briefly addressed here.

Youssef Amrani, Morocco: a singular path in a troubled region. 03.03.2016. Since 2011 the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been grappling with many hotbeds of instability, internal strife and an existential struggle against extremist terrorism. Yet the Moroccan global approach is different, unique, in that it capitalises on four elements: stability, vision, effective transformation and internationally-gained trust. These make Morocco’s democratic path unique and successful.

William Chislett, Spain moves towards fresh elections to break deadlock. 07.03.2016. Spain took a step toward fresh elections when Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist Party (PSOE) leader, twice failed to secure sufficient backing in Parliament to become Prime Minister. If no political leader obtains the required support by 2 May King Felipe will dissolve Parliament and call a new ballot, probably to be held on 26 June, which could produce another stalemate.

Carmen González Enríquez, Schengen: a collective asset no one stands up for. 09.03.2016. Schengen is the main collective asset that the EU has produced, along with the euro and the common market, but it is currently in grave jeopardy of disappearing as the closing of borders continues to spread.  

 

İlke Toygür and Melih Özsöz, Stormy months on the Aegean: the refugee deal and its impact on Turkey-EU relations. 15.03.2016. The refugee deal of 2015, followed by the opening up of a negotiation chapter, has revitalised the relations between Turkey and the EU; however, there are crucial points to bear in mind for future relations to be sustained, such as the lack of transparency and of a long-term plan.

Alfredo Arahuetes and Federico Steinberg, The interdependence of the British economy: a contribution to the Brexit debate. 17.03.2016. This paper analyses the interdependence of the British economy, both in terms of trade and direct investment, in order to assess the economic justification of a hypothetical Brexit. It concludes that it is difficult to justify the UK’s leaving the EU on the basis of economic arguments. The British economy has extremely close economic ties with the other countries in the EU, which would be jeopardised if Brexit were to go ahead.

Salvador Llaudes, Limited but non negligible consequences of Cameron’s agreement for Spain. With the exception of the section of the agreement regarding competitiveness, which is more ambiguous and imprecise, the rest (economic governance, sovereignty and social benefits) will bring about some changes regarding the relationship between the EU and UK, and will have certain effects on Spain. Though undesirable for a country so firmly pro-European, these effects do not have to be particularly dramatic, especially if they do not entail a cascade of petitions to obtain a singular status from other countries.

Miguel Otero-Iglesias and Erik Jones, What Europe needs is not an end to the euro, but better leadership. 22.03.2016. If there is a consensus, it is that the eurozone should integrate further. But politicians have failed to translate this into action. The time has come for European policymakers to advocate an economic policy prescription that promotes growth and employment while also restarting the flow of capital from the core to the periphery.

Fernando Reinares, Brussels attacks: Challenge to Security and Coexistence. 28.03.2016. The attacks in Brussels, as in Paris, are an attempt to instil fear in the hearts of European citizens, forcing them to change their behaviour and to shape the decisions of their governments. We have to avoid the spread of Islamophobia without losing sight of the challenge that both the Jihadists with their terrorist outrages and the Salafists with their anti-democratic preaching pose to open societies.

William Chislett, Inside Spain nº126 22nd February- 28th March. 28.03.2016. Spain to join International Syria Support Group. Socialist Sánchez fails in PM bid, Popular Party and Podemos still refusing support. Close to half of Spaniards say corruption is the country’s second largest problem. European Commission urges Spain to reduce budget deficit. Ferrovial wins £300 million contract to maintain 370kms of highways in UK.

Charles Powell, EU Global Strategy 45: Expert Opinion. 31.03.2016. Royal Institute Elcano’s contribution to the European Union Global Strategy project.

Patricia Lisa, The EU-Turkey Agreement: a turning point in the EU’s policy approach to the refugee crisis but with the devil lurking in the detail. 08.04.2016. Is the agreement the right way to manage the refugee crisis? Or are we misinterpreting the signs once more and not understanding that structural, non-transitory challenges cannot be overcome with exceptional, transitory actions, however difficult they may be to implement?

Leonard Seabrooke and Duncan Wigan, Panama Leaks and the Tide of Tax Reform. 13.04.2016. The leak of the ‘Panama Papers’ has created an enormous scandal and, more importantly, a great deal of political momentum for the international tax reform agenda.

elcano

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- European prose for David Cameron: not much changes. 23.02.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- Middle classes cut down to size. 01.03.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- Globalisation: factors of unity or division, depending on the circumstances. 08.03.2016

Lara Lázaro Touza, Climate change and Big Data. 09.03.2016.

Fernando Reinares, The terrorist threat in the EU: expect the unexpected.14.03.2016.

Antonio Rubio Plo, Kennan’s ‘long telegram’: reflections from the past and the present. 14.03.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- Europe: too many crises for so little leadership. 15.03.2016

Gonzalo Escribano, Libya: finding a way out of the labyrinth must be by way of the oil terminals. 15.03.2016

Antonio Rubio Plo, Contrasts between the realism of Kennan and Obama. 17.03.2016

Iliana Olivié, Is India the new China? 21.03.2016.

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- China viewed from Japan: weakness with stability. 22.03.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- Brexit: possible political disasters. 29.03.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- An odd Dutch referendum on the Ukraine: another European crisis on the horizon? 05.04.2016

William Chislett, Spain’s failure yet again to meet budget deficit target strains relations with Brussels. 06.04.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- Tax evasion and avoidance: a global problem. 12.04.2016

Clara Pérez Bocanegra, Ukraine, Russia and the sanctions: ‘the good, the bad and the ugly’. 15.04.2016

Past events at Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) – Spring 2016

IAI50

 

Beyond the Deadlock: What Future for EU-Russia Relations?”
18 April, Rome.
Conference organised in cooperation with Valdai Discussion Club.

Italian-German Town Hall Meeting”
05 April, Rome
Conference organised within the framework of the “Dialogue on Europe” project. The third European Town Hall Meeting took place with representatives from Italian civil society and the German Minister of State for Europe, Michael Roth. More than 100 participants followed the invitation of the Berlin-based think tank Das Progressive Zentrum, the Italian Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the German Foreign Office, to discuss European challenges and the Italian-German relationship.

Italy and the European Economic Governance”
17 March, Rome
Conference with Pier Carlo Padoan, Italian Minister of Economy and Finance, on an European strategy for growth and stability.


Brexit and the future of the EU: Italy’s Position and Interests”
11 March, Rome
A meeting on Italy’s position and interests concerning Brexit and the future of Europe, with Marco Piantini (Adviser to Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi for European Affairs) and Paolo Ponzano (Senior Fellow, Robert Schuman Centre, European University Institute, Florence).

“The EU, the OSCE and the European Security Order”

8 March, Rome
International conference in cooperation with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Dissemination event of the Final Report of the Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project.

“The EU and the global development framework. A strategic approach to the 2030 Agenda”
7 March, Rome
In cooperation with EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) and Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, with the contribution of European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM) and the strategic partnership of Compagnia di San Paolo. Among the speakers: Christos Stylianides, European Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management, and Mario Giro, Deputy Minister, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.

Past events at the Federal Trust for Education and Research – Winter 2015/16

FedTrust

“Britain and the EU: Difficult Questions”
25 February 2016, 9:30 a.m.-15:00 p.m., One Birdcage Walk, London SW1H 9JJ

The relationship of the United Kingdom with the European Union is entering a new chapter. The UK is seeking a new settlement with its European partners through a process of renegotiation, and will put the result of this process to a public vote, asking in a referendum whether to stay in the European Union or to leave.

This event examined different aspects of the UK’s relationship with the EU and the impact current developments will have on this relationship. There will be discussion of the political debate, centering on the current renegotiation and the referendum ahead, as well as a session on the popular debate focussing on the public’s perception of the EU institution. There will also be the launch of a new Federal Trust pamphlet, authored by Graham Bishop, on how the future relations between members and non-members of the Eurozone, such as the UK, can be managed.

The event offered an opportunity to hear from speakers from a variety of backgrounds, and discuss these difficult questions ahead in the relationship between the UK and her European partners.

Speakers included:

Jackie Minor, Head of Representation, European Commission Representation in the UK; Wayne David, Labour MP for Caerphilly; Neil Carmichael, Conservative MP for Stroud; Sir Stephen Wall, former European adviser to the British Prime Minister; Baroness Smith of Newnham, University of Cambridge; Timothy Kirkhope, Conservative MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber; Dr Tim Oliver, Dahrendorf Fellow on Europe-North America Relations, LSE Ideas; Professor Richard Whitman, Professor of International Relations, University of Kent.

More information can be found here.

Recent publications from Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) – Spring 2016

IAI50

The EU and the Global Development Framework. A Strategic Approach to the 2030 Agenda, by Bernardo Venturi and Miryam Magro (Documenti IAI 16|05) March 2016, 10 p.

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda adopted by world leaders in September 2015 are calling on the EU to redefine its approach to development cooperation in the framework of the new EU Global Strategy. This phase is an opportunity to include development cooperation in a strategy of external action and to integrate internal resilience with all the aspects of external action. This conference brought together policy-makers and experts from both academia and civil society to discuss these challenges and opportunities. The three sessions were focused on: the 2030 Agenda and the new global governance for development; the European Union’s global action and local engagement; food security, stability and crisis prevention in the 2030 Agenda. Summary report of the conference “The EU and the Global Development Framework. A Strategic Approach to the 2030 Agenda” held in Rome on 7 March 2016. The conference was organised in the framework of the review of the EU Global Strategy by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in cooperation with the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Compagnia di San Paolo, with the contribution of Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM).

Italy and the Reform of the European Economic Governance (original: L’Italia e la riforma della governance europea), by Fabrizio Saccomanni (Documenti IAI 16|04) March 2016, 6 p.

A Shared European Policy Strategy for Growth, Jobs, and Stability, the document prepared by the Italian Minister of Economy and Finances, Pier Carlo Padoan, in late February, makes an important contribution to the debate on the reform of European governance from political, analytical and procedural points of view. In this paper, the author examines some of the main issues raised by Padoan’s document from these three angles. The author broadly agrees with the document’s approach and thesis, but notes that it could have been more precise in formulating specific proposals for correcting the course of Europe’s “policy mix.”

The Spitzenkandidaten procedure: Reflecting on the Future of an Electoral Experiment, by Johannes Müller  Gómez and Wolfgang Wessels  (IAI Working Papers 16|08) March 2016, 25 p.

The 2014 European Parliament (EP) elections introduced a novel procedure to elect the President of the European Commission: the so-called Spitzenkandidaten, i.e. pan-European lead candidates nominated by the European political parties. The two main purposes behind this innovation were to mobilise the electorate and to strengthen the EP. The first use of the Spitzenkandidaten model established a new modus operandi of the EP at the expense of the European Council, which now has to appoint the lead candidate whose party won most seats in the European elections. However, it also contributed to polarising citizens’ attitudes towards the EU and did not overcome the tendency to compete in European elections on purely national issues. Future adjustments of the Spitzenkandidaten procedure should aim to improve the EU’s responsiveness and make the elections more European. Introducing primaries for the nominations of the Spitzenkandidaten could be a first step, eventually leading to the direct election of the Commission President.

Brexit or No Brexit? Political and Institutional Implications of an EU without UK, by Funda Tekin, (IAI Working paper 16|07) March 2016, 23 p.

The United Kingdom will vote on its fate within the European Union on 23 June 2016. Currently, there is still time to influence the outcome of this referendum – both from the UK and the EU side. The effects of a Brexit need to be closely assessed and communicated. This paper sets out to analyse the implications of different scenarios for Britain’s European future both in institutional and political terms. The main argument is that one way or the other the UK will be inclined to give up on its full membership, and then the EU will have to find the best possible ways to accommodate. Against this backdrop, this paper discusses the implications of differentiated integration, the UK’s role within the EU, British demands for renegotiating its EU membership, and the costs of keeping the UK within the EU or letting it go. The paper recommends agreeing on as much compromise as possible within the existing treaty framework. A Brexit cannot and will not solve current pressing problems of European integration.

Energy Union Watch (December 2015-February 2016), by Nicoló Sartori and Lorenzo Colantoni, No. 3, February 2016

The third issue of IAI’s quarterly bulletin, Energy Union Watch, is now available with a focus on security and best practices in the realm of gas procurement.