FEUTURE’s Newsletter No. 2 | October 2016

FEUTURE with text

FEUTURE’s Newsletter No. 2 was published in October 2016 and is available here.

The “FEUTURE – The Future of EU-Turkey Relations. Mapping Dynamics and Testing Scenarios” project, officially launched on 1 April 2016, is a TEPSA project on EU-Turkey relations that will last for three years (from 1 April 2016 till 30 March 2019).

Thanks to its broad consortium made up of renowned research institutes across Europe and beyond, FEUTURE sets out to explore fully different options for further EU-Turkey cooperation in the next decade, including analysis of the challenges and opportunities connected with further integration of Turkey with the EU.

The project’s consortium is led by TEPSA’s Honorary Member Prof. W. Wessels (University of Cologne) as coordinator, Dr. Nathalie Tocci (IAI) as scientific coordinator and Dr. Funda Tekin as project director.

To register for the FEUTURE Newsletter, you can send an email to feuture©tepsa•eu with your name and affiliation or visit the FEUTURE website.

FEUTURE’s  News Ticker December 2016

A FEUTURE’s  News Ticker was published in December 2016 and is available here.

FEUTURE News Ticker 2016-12 FINAL-page-001 (1)FEUTURE News Ticker 2016-12 FINAL-page-002 (1)FEUTURE News Ticker 2016-12 FINAL-page-003 (1)

The FEUTURE Consortium welcomes two new partners

FEUTURE with textThe FEUTURE Consortium would like to warmly welcome The American University in Cairo and Sabanci University as new partners in the FEUTURE project! More

–       The American University in Cairo (AUC) is an independent and private institution, fully accredited in Egypt and the United States. From AUC, we welcome Dr. Marco Pinfari, Justine Louis and Dr. Shaimaa Magued to the FEUTURE team. They will contribute mainly to WP2 “Political Drivers”, WP3 “Economic Drivers”, WP7 ”Identity and Culture Drivers” and WP8  “Synthesis of Research Findings and Policy Recommendations”, bringing in a neighbourhood perspective on EU-Turkey relations.

–       Established in 1996, Sabancı University (SU) is internationally recognized as one of the most innovative and research-oriented universities in Turkey. Our colleagues from Sabancı University, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Senem Aydin-Düzgit and Johanna Chovanec, will mainly contribute to WP 7 “Identity and Culture Drivers” and WP 9 “Dissemination and Outreach”.

Joint Workshop of FEUTURE Work Packages 2/4 “Power: Political and security drivers”

FEUTURE with textOn November 3 & 4 2016 the FEUTURE Work Packages “Political Drivers” and “Security Drivers” concluded the first round of joint workshops of work package-tandems. Upon the invitation of EDAM (leader of Work Package 4) about 20 researchers convened at Sabanci University to discuss and frame their research in light of the cross-cutting issue “power”. For more information see here.

FEUTURE Online Paper Series

FEUTURE with textThe FEUTURE Online Paper Series has been launched with a first contribution by IAI visiting researcher Bilge Yabanci. In her paper “The future of EU-Turkey relations: between mutual distrust and interdependency” she discusses current political and social developments in Turkey and takes stock of the recent EU-level and regional developments under positive, negative and unfolding trends. Download here.

New FEUTURE publication: Working Paper “Mapping periods and milestones of past EU-Turkey relations”

FEUTURE with text Authors: Hanna-Lisa Hauge (University of Cologne), Wolfgang Wessels (University of Cologne), Nurdan Selay Bedir (Middle East Technical University), Atila Eralp (Middle East Technical University)

This Working Paper aims to embed FEUTURE’s analysis of drivers of EU-Turkey relations in a historical context. It does so by outlining and discussing several narratives which represent influential interpretations of EU-Turkey relations at different times in history. It is argued that narratives on EU-Turkey relations became increasingly competitive in the course of time, both within EU and Turkey as well as between them. The paper maps these changes of narratives in light of different historical milestones and phases. The periodization also serves to outline trends of conflict, cooperation and convergence as manifested in the political discourse. Thereby, the paper also serves as starting point for the ensuing qualitative analysis of a vast set of sources, representing the debates in Turkey and the EU.

The paper can be downloaded here.

For more information about the FEUTURE project, please visit www.feuture.eu

New FEUTURE publication: Background Paper “Turkey and the European Union: Scenarios for 2023”, by Nathalie Tocci (IAI)

F|EU|TU|RE – FEUTURE with textThe Future of EU-Turkey Relations – analyses the past, present and future drivers of the EU-Turkey relationship. In order to navigate the possible future, a compass is necessary. This paper establishes this compass by imagining, delineating and systematizing three reference scenarios in order to organize subsequent research and eventually map out a most likely “feuture”. Drawing from Schwartz, the aim of these scenarios is to construct different pathways that might exist in future, suggesting and informing appropriate scholarly analysis or policy decisions that may be taken along those possible paths. Several conditions are proposed for the realisation of possible conflictual, cooperational or converging futures, taking into consideration forms of differentiated integration relating to these ideal-type scenarios.

The paper can be dowloaded here.

For more information about the FEUTURE project, please visit www.feuture.eu

Recent publications from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) – Spring/summer 2016

FIIA

 

Reports

  

Mika Aaltola & Anna Kronlund (eds.), After Rebalance: Visions for the future of US foreign policy and global role beyond 2016

The publication can be downloaded here.

Katri Pynnöniemi & András Rácz, Fog of Falsehood: Russian strategy of deception and the conflict in Ukraine

The publication can be downloaded here.

Briefing Papers

 

Michael Haltzel, Sticking to the Rules: The United States view on strengthening the OSCE

The publication can be downloaded here.

David Cadier, Detour or Direction? The Europeanisation of France’s policies towards Russia

The publication can be downloaded here.

Katri Pynnöniemi & Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Security in the Baltic Sea Region: Activation of risk potential

The publication can be downloaded here.

Marco Siddi, Privileged Partners? Italy should use its leverage for constructive policies towards Russia

The publication can be downloaded here.

Toni Alaranta, The problematic EU-Turkey refugee deal: The EU downplays its structural foreign policy in order to secure internal unity

The publication can be downloaded here.

Niklas Helwig, Will Angela Merkel cope with the populist challenge? The German chancellor faces opposition to her migration policies in Europe and at home

The publication can be downloaded here.

Katja Creutz & Marco Siddi, Committing to humanity? The World Humanitarian Summit offered a glimmer of hope among all the crises

The publication can be downloaded here.

Recommendations from members of the TEPSA network to the incoming Slovak Presidency, May 2016

tepsahighThe Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA) has the tradition to formulate recommendations to the incoming Council Presidency. These recommendations have been prepared by the following members of the TEPSA network: Iain Begg (TEPSA Board, LSE, London), Katrin Böttger (TEPSA Board, IEP, Berlin), Ilvija Bruģe (LIIA, Riga), Atilla Eralp (CES-METU, Ankara), Diāna Potjomkina (LIIA, Riga), Mark Rhinard (UI, Stockholm), Funda Tekin (CIFE, Berlin) and Guido Tiemann (IHS, Vienna). They do not necessarily represent the view of TEPSA or its member institutes.

Pre-Presidency 2016 BratislavaFunda Tekin presented the recommendations to the incoming Slovak Presidency at the occasion of the TEPSA-IESIR Pre-Presidency Conference on 2 and 3 June 2016 in Bratislava. The conference was organised by the Institute of European Studies and International Relations (IESIR), Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava in cooperation with the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA), and with the support of the Slovak Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the PONT project.

Migration Crisis

TEPSA has urged previous EU presidencies to devise truly collective solutions to the migration crisis. This should be done out of principle as well as common sense – even the most self-interested, rationalist analysis shows that strengthened management of the EU’s common border, distribution of resources to assist with an orderly asylum process at overwhelmed entry points, and greater shared responsibility for hosting refugees will help to end the crisis. Yet state-centric solutions are on the rise, as the Visegrad Four’s refusal to accept refugee relocation and Hungary’s highly restrictive asylum criteria serve to illustrate. To make matters worse, the European Commission seems content to accept these individualistic solutions. The Commission’s proposals on migration reform, from both April and May of this year, allow for harsh treatment of asylum seekers at the external border in exchange for reinstating Schengen (reopening internal borders). TEPSA urges the Slovakian Presidency of the EU to resist this ‘deal with the devil’ and encourage member states to see beyond their short-term impulses in exchange for long-term, collective solutions.

EU-Turkey relations

Slovakia takes over the EU Presidency at a time when EU-Turkey relations are strained, but more vital than ever, not least because of the refugee crisis. The EU has re-discovered Turkey as a “key strategic partner” and restarted accession negotiations and the visa liberalization procedure with Turkey as well as strengthened institutional EU-Turkey relations through biannual EU-Turkey Summits and regular meetings at the highest levels. At the same time there has been backsliding in Turkey’s reform process vis-à-vis the Copenhagen criteria, while the authoritarian drift in Turkey’s political system continues unabated, with power increasingly in the hands of President Erdoğan.

We urge the Slovak Presidency to keep up the close and balanced dialogue and relations with Turkey. At the same time the EU Presidency should not turn a blind eye Turkish breaches of European values. Specifically we believe the Slovak Presidency can play a key role by:

  • Pushing for the EU to take a clear stance on EU-Turkey relations as well as calling on Turkey to accept and act according to the respective conditions and rules. The visa liberalization procedure, for example, should only be finalized if Turkey implements the reforms linked to the procedure including the anti-terror law.
  • Provide external incentives for internal reforms: the next chapters of accession negotiations that should be opened – if any – are Chapters 23 and 24.
  • Ensure full implementation of the EU-Turkey Deal: although contested, the EU-Turkey Deal has caused a decrease in migration to the Greek islands. This deal needs full commitment on both sides. Inside the EU, the Slovak Presidency would provide a strong signal by committing to the resettlement programme as part of the EU-Turkey Deal, because a fair burden-sharing among EU Member States is essential for its success. At the same time “outsourcing” of migration management should not be the EU’s sole strategy: the Slovak presidency needs to ensure that financial and structural support to Greece continues.
Populism

In the last decade, increasingly euro-sceptical populism – mainly, but not only, right-wing – has been evident in most member states of the European Union. Populist notions are particularly effective in political domains which are inherently complicated, driven by symbolic politics, and characterised by low levels of public information on many key facets of European integration.

TEPSA calls on the incoming Slovak presidency to recognise, and respond to, three major drivers of populist euro-scepticism:

  • Policy gridlock within and among EU institutions;
  • A lack of popular support and legitimacy;
  • The democratic deficit of the European Union.

We urge the Slovak Presidency to counter the growing negativity by shifting the discourse from one that portrays so many common policies as a zero-sum game played among the member states, to one that emphasises the positive-sum outcomes from well-conceived policies that benefit all member states.

EU-Russia and EU-Ukraine relations

Given its external border with Ukraine, Slovakia has a strong interest in fostering a coherent and effective EU policy towards Russia. Progress towards a resolution of the Ukraine crisis can be advanced by:

  • Continuing the two-track approach of supporting Ukraine and the other Eastern Partnership countries in their transformation processes while at the same time stabilising and diversifying EU-relations with Russia. A key facet of this that the Slovak Presidency should encourage is a more active EU investment policy in Ukraine, in order to decrease the proportion of Russian capital, especially in strategic industries
  • But also acknowledging that the expression “Minsk II is dead” becomes progressively harder to refute in successive meetings of the Normandy format. Since they appear to achieve little or no progress in their negotiations, the Slovakian council presidency should seek alternative ways to overcome this stalemate. If a clearer path is not found by the end of the Slovak presidency, there is substantial danger of the conflict in eastern Ukraine ossifying.

With regards to the reform processes in Russia and the Eastern Partnership countries, the Slovak Presidency should build on the momentum from the ‘Panama Papers’ to work towards EU insistence on greater financial transparency and accountability in these countries. Such an initiative would help to deter repetition of scenarios witnessed in the case of Moldova, where the seemingly pro-European elite was engaged in large-scale corruption, and would be effective as a type of sanctions against Russian officials violating norms of international security and human rights. In particular, increased attention must be paid to suspicious deals involving EU nationals and EaP and Russian partners, especially regarding laundered funds located in the EU. The reform process should aim to achieve the progressive substitution of post-Soviet business norms by Western business ethics. Concerning EU-Russia relations, Slovakia will have the difficult task of negotiating amongst the EU-member states and their differing stances concerning the future development of these relations. In the spirit of not seeking to ‘punish’ societies for the actions of their governments and promoting closer ties between European and Russian societies there should also be attention to positive incentives. These should include new strategies for engaging Russian civil society through such instruments as massively increased students’ and youth exchanges, academic cooperation and track II dialogues with easier Schengen entry procedures for Russian nationals. These exchange opportunities may be not only bilateral (EU-Russia) but also involve Eastern Partnership countries.

The economy

Although the recent improvement in Eurozone growth is encouraging, the recovery from the crisis remains fragile. It is, therefore, a disappointment that the efforts of successive presidencies to revive the Europe 2020 strategy have been ineffectual. An approach going beyond the worthy but limited ambitions of the European Fund for Strategic Investment – the Juncker Plan – is needed to demonstrate to increasingly sceptical publics that the EU can make a difference. The Slovak Presidency should seize the opportunity to give fresh momentum to the Europe 2020 strategy or a successor strategy, focusing relentlessly on jobs and growth. The EU needs a budget fit for the challenges of today rather than the previous century. After the high-level group on own resources, chaired by Mario Monti, presents its report, it will be incumbent on the Slovak Presidency to ensure that its findings are acted upon and not left on the shelf to gather dust. Specifically a clear timetable with binding deadlines should be set for implementing new own resources.

Click here to dowload the PDF version of TEPSA’s recommendations

FEUTURE Newsletter No.1 | May 2016

FEUTURE Newsletter No.1 May 2016-page-001

FEUTURE Newsletter No.1 May 2016-page-002

FEUTURE Newsletter No.1 May 2016-page-003

FEUTURE Newsletter No.1 May 2016-page-004

Recent publications from Real Instituto Elcano – Spring 2016

Elcano

 

William Chislett, Inside Spain nº125 20th January- 22nd February. 22.02.2016. Spain to contribute €153 million to migration fund for Turkey. Countdown to the investiture of a Socialist Prime Minister. Spain records its worst score in corruption index, Popular Party hit by more scandals. New government, whenever there is one, faces big budget hole. CAF wins £490 million rolling-stock contract in UK.

Miguel Otero-Iglesias, How to strengthen the G20: Spain’s multilateral perspective. 25.02.2016. In the context of slow growth, destabilizing capital flows and currency wars, the G20 must develop joint solutions to overcome common problems. The threats faced are protracted rather than punctual and not easy to explain, which has dampened the sensation of urgency. The resulting inactivity has fed two intertwined dangers: the return of protectionist and nationalist policies and the formation of rivaling blocs

Miguel Otero-Iglesias, Sebastián Royo and Federico Steinberg, The Spanish financial crisis: Lessons for the European Banking Union. 01.03.2016. This report examines the Spanish banking crisis and uses it to extract valuable lessons for the construction of the European Banking Union (EBU), which is a complex process that resembles in some respects the variety of actors and preferences encountered in the Spanish case.

Jessica Almqvist, ‘Even war has rules’: a call for global action to protect civilians. 02.03.2016. There is an urgent need to address in a comprehensive manner the problem of systematic and flagrant violations of international humanitarian and human-rights law in ongoing conflicts, including its sources and implications. More specifically, possible lines of action to counter the growing importance of non-state armed actors and the use of explosives in populated areas must be discussed. A Global Action Plan on how to prevent, repress and redress serious violations of international law in armed conflict, taking into account the present and future role of UN peace missions, is a must.

Salvador Llaudes and Ignacio Molina, Spain’s stance on Cameron’s negotiations. 02.03.2016. Spain is finalising its stance on the negotiations being conducted by the European institutions to restrict the chances of a so-called ‘Brexit’. Some parts of the offer put forward by the President of the European Council are of concern from an integrationist perspective, but the proposal provides a good basis for arriving at a position that is agreeable to the 28. It is in the strategic interest of the EU in general, and of Spain in particular, to avoid ‘Brexit’. Therefore, so long as none of the red lines set in the various sections of the negotiations are breached, Spain will not raise objections when it comes to forming a consensus. The special circumstances surrounding these negotiations, particularly on the domestic Spanish stage, raise a series of procedural issues that shall also be briefly addressed here.

Youssef Amrani, Morocco: a singular path in a troubled region. 03.03.2016. Since 2011 the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been grappling with many hotbeds of instability, internal strife and an existential struggle against extremist terrorism. Yet the Moroccan global approach is different, unique, in that it capitalises on four elements: stability, vision, effective transformation and internationally-gained trust. These make Morocco’s democratic path unique and successful.

William Chislett, Spain moves towards fresh elections to break deadlock. 07.03.2016. Spain took a step toward fresh elections when Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist Party (PSOE) leader, twice failed to secure sufficient backing in Parliament to become Prime Minister. If no political leader obtains the required support by 2 May King Felipe will dissolve Parliament and call a new ballot, probably to be held on 26 June, which could produce another stalemate.

Carmen González Enríquez, Schengen: a collective asset no one stands up for. 09.03.2016. Schengen is the main collective asset that the EU has produced, along with the euro and the common market, but it is currently in grave jeopardy of disappearing as the closing of borders continues to spread.  

 

İlke Toygür and Melih Özsöz, Stormy months on the Aegean: the refugee deal and its impact on Turkey-EU relations. 15.03.2016. The refugee deal of 2015, followed by the opening up of a negotiation chapter, has revitalised the relations between Turkey and the EU; however, there are crucial points to bear in mind for future relations to be sustained, such as the lack of transparency and of a long-term plan.

Alfredo Arahuetes and Federico Steinberg, The interdependence of the British economy: a contribution to the Brexit debate. 17.03.2016. This paper analyses the interdependence of the British economy, both in terms of trade and direct investment, in order to assess the economic justification of a hypothetical Brexit. It concludes that it is difficult to justify the UK’s leaving the EU on the basis of economic arguments. The British economy has extremely close economic ties with the other countries in the EU, which would be jeopardised if Brexit were to go ahead.

Salvador Llaudes, Limited but non negligible consequences of Cameron’s agreement for Spain. With the exception of the section of the agreement regarding competitiveness, which is more ambiguous and imprecise, the rest (economic governance, sovereignty and social benefits) will bring about some changes regarding the relationship between the EU and UK, and will have certain effects on Spain. Though undesirable for a country so firmly pro-European, these effects do not have to be particularly dramatic, especially if they do not entail a cascade of petitions to obtain a singular status from other countries.

Miguel Otero-Iglesias and Erik Jones, What Europe needs is not an end to the euro, but better leadership. 22.03.2016. If there is a consensus, it is that the eurozone should integrate further. But politicians have failed to translate this into action. The time has come for European policymakers to advocate an economic policy prescription that promotes growth and employment while also restarting the flow of capital from the core to the periphery.

Fernando Reinares, Brussels attacks: Challenge to Security and Coexistence. 28.03.2016. The attacks in Brussels, as in Paris, are an attempt to instil fear in the hearts of European citizens, forcing them to change their behaviour and to shape the decisions of their governments. We have to avoid the spread of Islamophobia without losing sight of the challenge that both the Jihadists with their terrorist outrages and the Salafists with their anti-democratic preaching pose to open societies.

William Chislett, Inside Spain nº126 22nd February- 28th March. 28.03.2016. Spain to join International Syria Support Group. Socialist Sánchez fails in PM bid, Popular Party and Podemos still refusing support. Close to half of Spaniards say corruption is the country’s second largest problem. European Commission urges Spain to reduce budget deficit. Ferrovial wins £300 million contract to maintain 370kms of highways in UK.

Charles Powell, EU Global Strategy 45: Expert Opinion. 31.03.2016. Royal Institute Elcano’s contribution to the European Union Global Strategy project.

Patricia Lisa, The EU-Turkey Agreement: a turning point in the EU’s policy approach to the refugee crisis but with the devil lurking in the detail. 08.04.2016. Is the agreement the right way to manage the refugee crisis? Or are we misinterpreting the signs once more and not understanding that structural, non-transitory challenges cannot be overcome with exceptional, transitory actions, however difficult they may be to implement?

Leonard Seabrooke and Duncan Wigan, Panama Leaks and the Tide of Tax Reform. 13.04.2016. The leak of the ‘Panama Papers’ has created an enormous scandal and, more importantly, a great deal of political momentum for the international tax reform agenda.

elcano

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- European prose for David Cameron: not much changes. 23.02.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- Middle classes cut down to size. 01.03.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- Globalisation: factors of unity or division, depending on the circumstances. 08.03.2016

Lara Lázaro Touza, Climate change and Big Data. 09.03.2016.

Fernando Reinares, The terrorist threat in the EU: expect the unexpected.14.03.2016.

Antonio Rubio Plo, Kennan’s ‘long telegram’: reflections from the past and the present. 14.03.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- Europe: too many crises for so little leadership. 15.03.2016

Gonzalo Escribano, Libya: finding a way out of the labyrinth must be by way of the oil terminals. 15.03.2016

Antonio Rubio Plo, Contrasts between the realism of Kennan and Obama. 17.03.2016

Iliana Olivié, Is India the new China? 21.03.2016.

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- China viewed from Japan: weakness with stability. 22.03.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- Brexit: possible political disasters. 29.03.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- An odd Dutch referendum on the Ukraine: another European crisis on the horizon? 05.04.2016

William Chislett, Spain’s failure yet again to meet budget deficit target strains relations with Brussels. 06.04.2016

Andrés Ortega, Global Spectator- Tax evasion and avoidance: a global problem. 12.04.2016

Clara Pérez Bocanegra, Ukraine, Russia and the sanctions: ‘the good, the bad and the ugly’. 15.04.2016

FEUTURE Kick-off Conference in Istanbul, 26-27 May 2016

FEUTURE NL logo draftTaking Stock of EU-Turkey Relations: A Successful Kick-off for FEUTURE

On 26 and 27 May 2016 the research project “The Future of EU-Turkey Relations: Mapping Dynamics and Testing Scenarios” (FEUTURE) funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme was officially launched. About 100 participants including researchers from the consortium, distinguished Turkey experts, stakeholders and practitioners from Turkey, the European Union (EU) and the neighbourhood, as well as students and the wider interested public got together at the FEUTURE Kick-Off Conference in Istanbul. This event was hosted by Istanbul Bilgi Universitesi.

During the debate of the first day, which was open to the public, different views as to which path relations will most likely take in the future were exchanged and discussed in light of FEUTURE’s research aims and design. FEUTURE’s broad assessment of this relationship acknowledges the depth and intensity of relations between Turkey and the EU. It will combine both a look ‘backwards’ through its analysis of narratives which have shaped the debate in Turkey and the EU in different phases with a forward-looking approach which aims at delineating a most likely scenario(s) for the future and related policy recommendations. All participants welcomed this project and its research approach, because they felt that at this point in time substantial and ambitious research on EU-Turkey relations is highly relevant.

Debating FEUTURE’s Research Design: Future Scenarios and Historical Narratives

FEUTURE kick-offThe first day of the conference focused on discussing FEUTURE’s scenarios and narratives at two high-level panels with the project’s researchers and renowned Turkey experts from the project’s Scientific and Policy Advisory Board. The aim was to update the project’s research agenda and make it fit to meet the challenges of analyzing EU-Turkey relations which constitute a ‘moving target’ par excellence.

At the first panel, chaired by Funda Tekin (FEUTURE Project Director), Nathalie Tocci (FEUTURE Scientific Coordinator) presented three ideal-type scenarios (Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict) that will be tested through FEUTURE’s research in the upcoming three years. Overall, Tocci identified coexisting trends and concluded that for the project this will also mean that research will most probably not identify only one most likely scenario but rather delineate a mix of their features. Andrew Duff (former MEP), Nilgün Arisan Eralp (TEPAV) and Ronald Linden (University of Pittburgh) agreed and particularly stressed the need for flexibility in these three scenarios. Furthermore they encouraged to think “out of the box” and to scrutinize the EU’s relationship with other (new) external countries.

The second panel, chaired by Senem Aydin-Düzgit (Bilgi University), elaborated on the project’s ‘backward perspective’ of EU-Turkey relations in form of the historical analysis of narratives. Wolfgang Wessels (FEUTURE Project Director) and Atila Eralp (METU) presented this part of FEUTURE research that starts from the assumption that a critical assessment of the history of EU-Turkey relations is a key element for delineating scenarios for the future. Therefore, the research aims to 1) map the milestones and periods of EU-Turkey relations and 2) identify the most salient narratives, which have shaped the political debate both in the EU and in Turkey during different historical phases. The representatives from the FEUTURE Scientific and Policy Advisory Board, Albert Rohan (Independent Commission on Turkey), Ofra Bengio (Tel Aviv University) and Meltem Müftüler-Bac (Sabanci University) further contextualized the narrative analysis of EU-Turkey relations by elaborating on four key-terms that have been used in the past and present in order to structure the interrelatedness of the EU and Turkey: 1) Bridge, 2) Model, 3) Orientation and 4) Asset. Additionally, the debate critically assessed the question of how relevant history really is for the present and what the added value of a historical analysis is in light of EU-Turkey relations. Finally, the importance of understanding the EU integration process itself for analyzing EU-Turkey relations was underlined.

Getting Started with the Research: Workshops on the Second Day

The second day provided the researchers from the consortium the possibility to familiarize themselves with the details of the FEUTURE research. The Work Package (WP) Leaders organized parallel workshops on the six thematic dimensions that FEUTURE will analyse: politics, economics, security, energy/climate, migration, identity/culture. It will be the aim of their research to identify the drivers that determine the relations from these different perspectives. At these workshops in the morning of 27 May 2016, the WP leaders together with their research teams prepared the first steps and updated their research designs with regard to the latest developments.

In a ‘synthesis and outreach’ session led by Nathalie Tocci and Sinan Ülgen the consortium discussed the third phase of the project, which will synthesize and test these results within one or more scenario(s) with the aim of producing policy recommendations. The Kick-Off Conference concluded within the first meeting of the FEUTURE General Assembly, in which the partners’ representatives discussed matters concerning the consortium as a whole.

A detailed Conference Report will follow shortly and will be available at www.feuture.eu.

New TEPSA project: FEUTURE – The Future of EU-Turkey Relations. Mapping Dynamics and Testing Scenarios

FEUTURE

The new TEPSA project “FEUTURE – The Future of EU-Turkey Relations. Mapping Dynamics and Testing Scenarios” was officially launched on 1 April 2016.

Visit the FEUTURE Website

FEUTURE is a TEPSA project on EU-Turkey relations that will last for three years (from 1 April 2016 till 30 March 2019). TEPSA is currently exploring how its member institutes can be involved in some phases of the project as well.

Thanks to its broad consortium made up of renowned research institutes across Europe and beyond, FEUTURE sets out to explore fully different options for further EU-Turkey cooperation in the next decade, including analysis of the challenges and opportunities connected with further integration of Turkey with the EU. To do so, FEUTURE applies a comprehensive research approach with the following three main objectives:

  1. Mapping the dynamics of the EU-Turkey relationship in terms of their underlying historical narratives and thematic key drivers.
  2. Testing and substantiating the most likely scenario(s) for the future and assessing the implications (challenges and opportunities) these may have on the EU and Turkey, as well as the neighbourhood and the global scene.
  3. Drawing policy recommendations for the EU and Turkey on the basis of a strong evidence-based foundation in the future trajectory of EU-Turkey relations.

The consortium will be lead by TEPSA Chairperson Prof. W. Wessels (University of Cologne) as coordinator and Dr. Nathalie Tocci (IAI), as scientific coordinator, with Dr. Funda Tekin as project director.

To stay up to date with the activities of the FEUTURE project, you can subscribe to the FEUTURE Newsletter by sending an email to feuture©tepsa•eu with your name and affiliation or by filling up the registration form on the FEUTURE website.

Social media icons

You can also follow FEUTURE on Facebook and Twitter