Eight new reports on European Union by the Istituto Affari Internazionali – IAI, June-September 2016
Negotiating the European Union’s Dilemmas: Proposals on Governing Europe, by Nicoletta Pirozzi and Pier Domenico Tortola, (IAI Working paper 16|24) September 2016, 22 p.
This paper culminates and concludes the “Governing Europe” research project by presenting an overall assessment of the state of the European Union, and a set of prescriptions for the short and medium term, building on the analysis and find-ings of the individual contributions. The paper is organised around six main questions: first, how to construct a realistic and fruitful political narrative for the Union? Second, how to turn politicisation from a threat to an opportunity for integration? Third, how to best balance unity and diversity by means of differentiated integration? Fourth, how to consolidate the Eurozone both economically and institutionally? Fifth, how to change the EU’s guiding economic paradigm? Finally, how to formulate a foreign policy that matches Europe’s position in the world? For each of these themes the paper reflects on the main issues and dilemmas facing EU policy-makers, summarises the project’s recommendations, and lists a number of actionable policy points.
The Refugee Card in EU-Turkey Relations: A Necessary but Uncertain Deal, By Laura Batalla Adam, Global Turkey in Europe, (Working paper 14) September 2016, 12 p.
Now in its fifth year, the war in Syria has triggered the largest humanitarian and refugee crisis of our time. For most refugees, Turkey is the main transit country to reach Europe, where they hope for a better life. However, Europe has not yet been able to provide a long-term sustainable response to the current refugee situation. Meanwhile, Turkey has become the largest refugee-hosting country in the world with over 2.7 million refugees. As this paper argues, the EU and Turkey need each other in handling the refugee crisis. A failure to cooperate will put the future of hundreds of thousands of Syrians refugees on hold and have irreversible consequences for EU-Turkey relations.
Energy Union Watch, Nicolò Sartori and Lorenzo Colantoni, No. 5, period June-August, August 2016, 18 p.
A quarterly bulletin on the Energy Union that collects official documents, public information and open source data – processed and analysed by the IAI team
Strengthening the EU’s External Action: The Need for an EU Food Diplomacy?, by Daniele Fattibene, (IAI Working paper 16|17) July 2016, 20 p.
Over the last decades, food security has come to the fore as a relevant issue both for scholars and for policy-makers. The so-called “Arab Spring” revealed the strong linkage between food security, political instability and migration. The European Union’s food security policy has set up solid building blocks to deal with the challenge both in terms of development and of humanitarian policies. However, such an approach has proved to be too sectoral, lacking a clear strategic framework where food is embedded into broader security dynamics. An EU food diplomacy under the aegis of the European External Action Service could help to integrate the two souls – development and humanitarian assistance – of the EU’s food security policy, in line with the EU Global Strategy and the international commitments made on climate change and sustainable development.
How Will I Function When I Grow Up? The Effectiveness of EU Foreign Policy Governance Stuck in a Teleological Dilemma, by Lorenzo Vai (IAI Working Papers 16|18) July 2016, 21 p.
In times of international crises the effectiveness of the European Union Foreign Policy (EFP) has been seriously called into question: why has the EU failed so often in achieving its objectives? Besides an essential lack of political will among the European capitals there is something more. The current EU institutional system governing external action has shown a number of shortcomings ascribable to three original structural sins affecting its architecture, namely: an artificial separation within EU foreign policy areas; a lack of EU capabilities; and a democratic deficit in the EFP policy cycles. These deficiencies have contributed to reducing the global effectiveness of the EU action undermining its readiness for action, autonomy, coherence and visibility. The Lisbon Treaty tried to mitigate these sins with oscillating levels of success because at the heart of the problem lies an existential and unresolved dilemma about the future of the Union. At this point of the integration path any further institutional development aimed to fix these sins definitely has to face and solve this dilemma. If the current political context does not seem to allow this leap forward, the Lisbon Treaty and the EU actors may still have something to say in struggling for a more effective EU in the world.
Implications of the EU Global Strategy for the Middle East and North Africa, by Eduard Soler i Lecha and Nathalie Tocci, Menara papers 16|12, future notes 1, July 2016, 4 p.
The Middle East and North Africa are in turmoil, Europe’s security is inextricably linked to what happens in this region, and yet the EU has limited capacities to change realities on the ground. These are three of the main messages of the EU Global Strategy presented in June 2016. The document presents Europeans and the wider world with a vision on the international context in which the EU will operate in the coming years. It depicts a complex, contested and connected world, where the EU’s strategic interests must be coherent with its values. It also espouses the concept of principled pragmatism as a guide for the EU’s external action in the years ahead and mentions the concept of resilience more than forty times. The strategy acknowledges that the EU is not alone, that it needs to partner to be influential and that it has an interest in promoting cooperative regional orders. In the framework of the MENARA project, let’s launch a discussion on what could be the practical implications of this new vision for EU policies in the Middle East and North Africa in the next decade.
Brexit and the Future of the United Kingdom, by Etain Tannan (IAI Working Papers 16|16) July 2016, 16 p.
This paper aims to assess the significance of Brexit for the future of the UK as a unitary state and to identify various possible outcome to the future of the UK. The first part provides an overview of the current status of Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK and the differences between both cases. The second part of the article assesses the significance of the EU for the devolved administrations and analyses key party responses to the Brexit debate in Scotland and Northern Ireland. In conclusion the impact of Brexit on the future of the UK as unitary state is assessed.
Oil Price Volatility and the Implications for European Foreign and Security Policy, by Nicolò Sartori (IAI Working Papers 16|15) June 2016, 26 p.
The volatility characterising oil prices in the last year and a half is likely to affect negatively the already compromised economies and socio-political patterns of MENA producing countries. The echo would resound directly in Europe, an important import destination and migrant recipient. Starting from a broad overview of the consequences of declining oil prices on the revenue-dependent economies of North Africa and the Middle East, this paper investigates the possible social and political implications in the medium-long term, highlighting the need for producing states to evaluate wisely policies able to prevent further turmoil in the area. A large part is dedicated to what the trend means for Europe, in order to shed light on the strong link between the regions and underline the importance of the EU playing an active role in mitigating the effects on both importing and exporting countries.