The day-ahead prices in Ukraine increased as expected, and probably everyone would be very surprised if this did not happen against the background of the shortage of generation (occupied, damaged and destroyed generating enterprises) and a seasonal increase in consumption (summer heat). However, I personally expected a slightly smaller increase due to the low purchasing power of the commercial sector in wartime.
Compared to June 2023, the July day-ahead prices rose by 20% — from EUR 73/MWh to EUR 86/MWh. In general, prices have become much closer to those of the neighbouring European countries, but another indicator points to qualitative changes: the price curve has also become more similar to European trends, that is, the market has taken a confident step towards price synchronization and real market coupling.
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