“Comments on macroeconomic forecast”, Vasyl Yurchyshyn (Razumkov Centre, Ukraine)

Presenting the macroeconomic forecast of the country in the conditions of the war and lack of adequate statistical information seems quite risky, given the unforeseen events significantly affecting the socio-economic situation in the country. Still, evaluation of the current situation inevitably makes you wonder “what’s next”, “what changes should we get ready for”, “how achievable are these targets” (both for the state and households).

At the end of March 2022 (a month after the beginning of the Russian aggression) we published our forecast of the key macroeconomic indicators. Today we can state that although the military and security situation has improved, compared to March, the socio-economic situation is still characterised by huge human losses, unprecedented flows of refugees and displaced persons, significant destruction of cities, homes and infrastructure facilities, foreign exchange and price imbalances, etc.

Read more here.