“Exploiting and transcending the Johnson binary: the prospects for an electoral pact”, Andrew Blick (The Federal Trust, United Kingdom)

Division has been central to the electoral strength of the Johnson Conservative Party. It might also prove key to understanding its potential weakness. Conservative victory in December 2019 was achieved partly through identifying a social cleavage and securing a large proportion of the support of those on one side of it. The 2016 referendum brought this already latent aspect of UK politics, cutting across established party support lines, to the forefront. It does not explain the behaviour of all voters or all the actions of the Conservative Party, but is nonetheless useful as an analytical framework.

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