“Hard Brexit plus COVID equals Divorce?”, Andrew Black (The Federal Trust, United Kingdom)

President Clinton admonished us that it was “the economy, stupid”. Perhaps, in the current febrile situation this should be amended to being “it’s the politics, stupid”.  Faced with a 25% drop in GDP in the UK in quarter 2, this might seem surprising to some. But take a closer look. Whether it be the Cummings affair, or the mistakes made by the UK government and Public Health England in controlling the Covid outbreak, the political consequences are looking poor for the freshly elected UK government. When polled, voters in the devolved regions of Scotland and Wales now have more faith in their own devolved governments to deal with the crisis, than they have in the UK’s government based in Westminster.

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