“How Vulnerable?”, András Inotai (IWE, Hungary)

András Inotai: How Vulnerable? In: Aspen Review, Issue 04/2018

Export-oriented new member countries of the European Union and the spread of trade protectionism.

A ghost is on the loose in the world. The ghost of protectionism. The bottle was opened by the Trump administration but can rapidly attain global dimensions with irreparable harm not only to world trade but also to the global economic and political landscape with serious security implications.

The consequences of trade protectionism, following the 1929-33 global crisis, are well known. Politicians did learn this lesson at times when they did not react to the global financial and economic crisis in 2008 with widespread and national/regional protectionism. They did understand that any breakdown in terms of high-level interdependence would lead to unpredictable consequences. International trade, although it suffered a double-digit recession in one year, was therefore able to remain a key pillar of (…)

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