“If Le Pen wins”, Andrés Ortega (Elcano, Spain)

Far from being a fanciful notion, there is a serious possibility that Marine Le Pen could win the presidential election in France in spring 2022. The centre-left Jean Jaurés Foundation, in a report on the subject based on various indicators, deems it ‘not insignificant’. It is an eventuality that must be anticipated because little can be done to prevent it from outside. If it became a reality it could change the debate on European integration, and affect the internal politics of various member states, with serious consequences for the project in general, and for the interests of Spain in particular.

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