“Is Lukashenka ready for a war?”, Oleksiy Melnyk (Razumkov Centre, Ukraine)

October 10 was a turning point when Lukashenko was again on the brink of giving the command to attack. The situation was the same as at the beginning of the Russian invasion, and on October 10, if Lukashenka had seen signs that Ukraine might capitulate or collapse, he would obviously have taken the opportunity to join the victorious camp. But on the same day, October 10, or the next day, it became clear that the results of the massive missile strikes on Ukraine not only failed to achieve their goals but worked against the Kremlin. That is why Lukashenka returned to his position of maximum balancing, despite he received another $1.5 billion loan from Putin.

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