Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not just shattered what was left of Europe’s post-Cold War order. It has also defined the broad contours of Europe’s future order and consequently of the kind of peace such an order will be able to sustain. The war has no foregone conclusion. It may result in Ukraine successfully pushing Russian troops out of its territory or in Russia consolidating its conquest of the whole of Donbass and the area between it and Crimea. Yet, it could also develop into a frozen conflict, characterised by a protracted military stalemate.
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