The Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun and will, among other things, demonstrate how effective Western support, such as arms supplies and training, has been so far. In addition, it will be a tense period for the entire European continent given the risks of further escalation. However, NATO stands ready to prevent this.
NATO is not a party to the current conflict, but it obviously watches with suspicion any Russian troop movement on the alliance’s eastern and northern flanks. Indeed, there is a legitimate concern for horizontal escalation of the war in which Ukraine’s neighbours, for example, would be dragged into the conflict. During last November’s missile incident in Poland, there was a brief fear of further escalation, but the cool-headed response by NATO and ally Poland ensured that calm prevailed.
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