“Norwegian Gas in Europe in the 2020s”, Jakub Godzimirski (NUPI, Norway)

This chapter examines the factors that will influence the position of the Norwegian gas on the market in the 2020’s. Starting with an examination of the historical role of Norway as a gas supplier to the EU, this chapter maps the role of various factors in shaping framework conditions on the European gas market that can influence the position of the Norwegian gas as an energy source. The main conclusion is that Norway will remain an important supplier of gas until 2030 but may face some serious problems to remain relevant after this date due to possible depletion of gas deposits and increased EU focus on the negative impact of fossil fuels on climate change, the development of a more sustainable energy mix in Europe as well as the emergence of new gas suppliers to Europe, first and foremost LNG that could take higher share of the shrinking gas market in Europe. Development of the cost-effective large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology could alleviate some energy transition related pains and make gas more acceptable as a source of energy, also if the development of hydrogen economy were to materialise. The Norwegian gas could be turned into an important input in green hydrogen, a new promising energy source combining the best of the two energy worlds—the fossil one and the green one.

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