The protests that have jolted Iran’s clerical leadership over the past weeks, as well as news of Iran’s drone and missile sales to Russia, raise questions that EU policymakers and foreign policy analysts have been struggling with for years: how stable is the Islamic Republic? How to support protesters? And how to reconcile condemnation of the crackdown on demonstrators and the need to react to Iran’s uncovered support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine with EU interests in regional security and nuclear non-proliferation? Such questions are overdue, but answers are nowhere to be found. And yet they should be given, however unsatisfying these answers may be, based on an analysis of the available empirical evidence and EU interests at stake.
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