Recent Publications from Elcano Royal Institute, Autumn 2016

ElcanoAnalyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI)

An agenda for the future of the European Union: addressing citizens’ expectations

Elcano Royal Institute – 15.09.2016

The EU leaders meeting in Bratislava on 16 September face a challenging, not to say hostile, environment. Responding to people’s fundamental concerns will simultaneously help member states and enhance the value of the EU for its citizens.

European Strategy in times of geopolitical interdependence

Luis Simón – 20.09.2016

As Europeans struggle to get through an economic and political crisis that is shaking the foundations of European integration, security-related concerns have returned to the center stage of political debate.

China and climate change: the good, the bad and the ugly

Lara Lázaro and Mario Esteban – 03.10.2016

Although much remains to be done by China to set the world on a climate-bearable path, China’s efforts are significant and its ratification of the Paris Agreement ahead of the G-20 meeting is a key step for the entry into force of Kyoto’s successor.

Beyond Brexit: the future of the Spanish-British relationship

Luis Simón – 07.10.2016

All the media noise about the possible implications of an eventual British exit from the EU (Brexit)should not stand in the way of a much-needed reassessment of the strategic potential offered by stronger bilateral ties between Spain and the UK.

Missile defence in Europe: tying together the technical, political and security dimensions

Gustav Lindstrom – 13.10.2016

Missile defence in Europe is evolving and maturing, even if it this is occurring at the margins of public debate. At the same time, there are perceptions that the missile threat is growing. A more sophisticated approach towards missile defence in Europe is required.


Has the time come to reconsider Turkey’s EU membership?

William Chislett14.11.2016

The EU’s report on Turkey’s progress in meeting the conditions to become a full member is so critical that it begs the question whether the two sides should consider abandoning the accession process.

Inside Spain


Number 131

William Chislett – 21.09.2016

Spain receives 2% of the refugees it agreed to accept.

Clock starts ticking towards third election in a year.

Rajoy ups growth forecast, warns of consequences of political deadlock.

Ferrovial enters Chilean electricity sector.


Number 132

William Chislett – 17.10.2016

Spain’s call for Britain to share sovereignty of Gibraltar rebuffed.

Socialists in crisis, soul searching over allowing a new Popular Party government.

Three former Popular Party treasurers in macro corruption trial.

Spain continues to overshoot budget deficit target.

Number 133

William Chislett – 28.11.2016

Spain back in the international arena, Merkel applauds Rajoy.

New Popular Party (PP) minority government faces many challenges.

European Commission downgrades growth forecast, making fiscal deficit reduction more


Ferrovial wins €300m high-speed train contract in UK.

Expert Comments & Others

The Bratislava Summit and the Blue Danube – or thinking about Europe’s future

Karel de Gucht – 13.10.2016

Instead of singing the praises of integration in new and challenging policy fields, the EU should focus on consolidating and strengthening those policy fields in which it does best, on the daily problems of its citizens, and delivering tangible results.

A political economy of low oil prices in Algeria

Gonzalo Escribano – 19.10.2016

Low oil prices seem to have slightly shifted Algerian political economy balances, making economic (and energy) reform more attractive. Both the EU and the US should explore this window of opportunity.

Spain finally has a new government: what lies ahead?

William Chislett – 26.10.2016

Spain’s minority Popular Party (PP) government, which will be voted in by parliament before the end of October after a 10-month limbo period following inconclusive elections last December and June, has a lot on its plate.

Brexit: a sentence that does not change (excessively) the horizon

Salvador Llaudes – 11.11.2016

In the likely case that the Supreme Court confirms the decision of the British justice, a rebellion of deputies against the Brexit is not expected.

How Europe should deal with a Trump Administration

Ulrich Speck – 11.11.2016

To alienate the next US President is unwise, as it will harm European interests. Instead, Europe must try to influence Trump’s policies and his decision-making by engaging with him. And it must start to work on a plan B.

Trump on trade: from populism to policy

Richard Higgot – 14.11.2016

The future of the global trade regime depends on educating Trump and his supporters that free trade is an opportunity, not a risk, and that the WTO is still the best place to secure the norms of an open liberal trade system.

Breaking up the Euro would empower the nationalists

Miguel Otero-Iglesias – 21.11.2016

Despite recent tensions, the Euro has created deep ties that go beyond economic cooperation and are integral to European identity.

Spain: A new opportunity to play a more central role in the EU

Salvador Llaudes – 07.12.2016

Spain finally has a government. How will the country now play its cards in the international arena, especially in the EU post-Brexit? And will the new role of the Parliament be useful for Spanish foreign policy?

Brave discourses, constructive discourses

Andrés Ortega – 20.09.2016

Global Spectator

The general discourse of political leaders can carry weight. But as Angela Merkel is experiencing, the discourses of courage are no guarantee of success.

English will continue to be spoken in Brussels

Andrés Ortega – 27.09.2016

Global Spectator

English is deeply rooted in the institutions of the EU and this is not about to change, whether Brexit finally comes to pass or not.


Clinton holds the line on Trump in the first debate

Paul Isbell – 27.09.2016

The polls had been tightening all through the month leading up to last night’s US Presidential Election Debate at Hofstra University in New York between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the respective Democratic and Republican Party nominees.

The Clinton-Trump election remains tight

Paul Isbell – 03.10.2016

A week after the first presidential debate in the US, and just over a month before the election on November 8th, the Clinton-Trump election remains tight.

Electoral scenarios: somewhere between grey and black

Andrés Ortega – 04.10.2016

Global Spectator

The next few months could be decisive for the electoral scenarios in Europe. There will be elections in Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, France and Germany.

Germans and their “angst”

Alexander Görlach – 05.10.2016

German’s fear is exploited by a new right wing. The Alternative for Germany and the PEGIDA movement march against refugees and Islam.

Clinton dissipates Trump’s September Surge

Paul Isbell – 10.10.2016

As a result of Trump’s stumblings in both the social and foreign policy terrains, a number of high level Republican leaders have recently abandoned him.

The western middle classes: decline, stagnation or rise?

Andrés Ortega – 11.10.2016

Global Spectator

The decline of the middle classes in the west could be behind the growth of populism in a large number of societies, but what is the truth of the matter?


Nobody’s perfect, not even Justin Trudeau

Nikole Hyndman – 13.10.2016

Justin Trudeau shows great promise as a leader, but with Trudeau’s incessant good press, critical voices are not being heard.

Syria: a concentrated world war

Andrés Ortega – 18.10.2016

Global Spectator

After six years, the situation in Syria has become a world war on a small, concentrated scale, although with terrible consequences for its inhabitants.

Clinton pulls away, and Trump Chases

Paul Isbell – 20.10.2016

Hillary Clinton appears to have pulled out of the final turn of the long campaign well before, and at a faster rate than Donald Trump.

Farewell Charlemagne: Europe in regions

Andrés Ortega – 25.10.2016

Global Spectator

Some people believe that Europe is undergoing a process of Balkanisation, although the continent’s regionalisation might in fact be something positive.

New protectionism, less investment?

Andrés Ortega – 02.11.2016

Global Spectator

Recently, both protectionist voices and measures have been on the increase. Even investments are not immune to the new protectionism.

Is Russia really a threat?

Andrés Ortega – 08.11.2016

Global Spectator

Although Russia knows that it is needed to resolve many global problems, the country has shrunk in comparison with the US and China.

The second Trump surge: is it receding again, or about to breach the dyke?

Paul Isbell – 08.11.2016

The election contest remains tight and still potentially volatile. In any case, a deep challenge of national unity will remain, regardless of who wins.

Europe is unprepared for Trump

Andrés Ortega – 15.11.2016

Global Spectator

The election of Donald Trump as US President, hard on the heels of the Brexit referendum, has forced Europe to confront another mirror.

Approaching Brexit, Trump and globalization from the Elcano Global Presence Index

Iliana Olivié – 21.11.2016

Globalization has been a major issue in two of the most important recent campaigns in Western countries: the Brexit referendum and the US Elections.

Social Media and democracy: Trump harnessed the power of algorithms

Andrés Ortega – 22.11.2016

Global Spectator

The US presidential elections have shown that democracy has changed, and the means of obtaining victory, too.

Trump: bilateralism

Andrés Ortega – 29.11.2016

Global Spectator

Donald Trump may well be the President of a certain US withdrawal and bilateralisation. Bilateralism may become his trademark.

Italy and Austria, taking an unorthodox stand against populism

Andrés Ortega – 07.12.2016

Global Spectator

It would be a mistake to say that Italy has voted against Europe, even though the decision may have European consequences.