Recent publications from Real Instituto Elcano – Winter 2015/16

William Chislett, Inside Spain nº 123- 17^th of November – 16^th of December 2015, ‘A lively look at current affairs by a seasoned observer of Spanish political and economic life’. Section specially commissioned for our monthly bilingual Boletín/Newsletter written by William Chislett, former correspondent of The Times in Spain (1975-78) and the Financial Times in Mexico (1978-84), who has lived in Madrid since 1986.
Summary of issue: seven killed in Taliban attack on Spanish embassy in Kabul, Popular Party forecast to win the election but far from an absolute majority, Constitutional Court strikes down Catalan independence resolution, ten takeaways from the European Commission’s surveillance report and Abengoa struggles to stave off bankruptcy.

Fernando Reinares, How to counter jihadist appeal among Western European Muslims. December 2015. Worldwide terrorism connected with the jihadist insurgencies in Syria and Iraq emerges disproportionately among second- and third-generation Muslim youth from Western Europe. Governments should prepare community leaders to identify and intervene with at-risk youth and should enhance and coordinate efforts to counter jihadist propaganda.

William Chislett, Inside Spain nº 124- 16^th of December – 20^th of January 2016, ‘A lively look at current affairs by a seasoned observer of Spanish political and economic life’. Section specially commissioned for our monthly bilingual Boletín/Newsletter written by William Chislett, former correspondent of The Times in Spain (1975-78) and the Financial Times in Mexico (1978-84), who has lived in Madrid since 1986.
Summary of issue; fresh election on the cards as parties fail to bury differences and form new government, catalan acting Prime Minister Artur Mas quits to avert new elections, King Felipe’s sister the Infanta Cristina on trial for tax fraud, registered jobless drops to lowest level since 2010, Santander acquires Portugal’s Banco Banif.

Wiiliam Chislett. Spain in uncharted territory after inconclusive general election. 21.12.2015. The two upstart parties, the centrist Ciudadanos (‘Citizens’) and the anti-austerity Podemos (‘We Can’), broke the hegemony of the conservative Popular Party (PP) and the centre-left Socialists (PSOE), the two mainstream parties that have alternated in power since 1982, but produced a very fragmented parliament that makes the creation of a stable government fraught with difficulties.

Salvador Llaudes, EU-28 WATCH No. 11 / October 2015: Spain. 22.12.2015. This document analyses the Eastern Neighbours and Russia (mostly the Ukraine crisis that has been developing since 2013) and the EU enlargement from a Spanish perspective. It is part of the EU-28 Watch, a project coordinated by the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) and Institutes from all 28 EU member states –including the Elcano Royal Institute– as well as the candidate countries (Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey).

Lara Lázaro-Tourza, COP21 and the Paris Agreement: a diplomacy masterclass in search of greater climate ambition. 11.01.2016. The Paris Agreement is a turning point in the multilateral fight against climate change. Implementation will, however, be key. Many key elements that led to the Copenhagen Accord have evolved in the past six years. The analysis concludes the diplomatic success that culminated in the adoption of the Paris Agreement provides the world with a new global climate governance framework that contains valuable elements in the fight against climate change but that more needs to be done.

Gonzalo Escribano, Algeria approves a budget right at the brink. 15.01.2016. Algeria has approved a budget for 2016 at the limit of the politically feasible after a tumultuous parliamentary session. The paper looks at the implications of austerity in the budget for investment, growth and unemployment and the consequent opposition to the structural reforms proposed. It sets out the three lines the Algerian government has opted not to cross in its 2016 finance bill (cutting subsidies, opening up to the outside and good governance) that are impossible to defer indefinitely.

Işık Őzel, Surrounded by trouble, hit by conflict: Turkey and its manifold challenges. 18.01.2016. Located in a difficult zone of conflict and power struggles between multiple players, Turkey is experiencing some hard times. Difficulties regarding its foreign policy are currently coupled with turmoil in its domestic politics, rising conflict and threats against democracy. This paper will first analyse the emerging dominant-party regime and its challenges and then evaluate some of its pressing foreign policy issues, focusing on the civil war in Syria and its ramifications for Turkey, including the refugee crisis and the tensions with Russia as well as the recently revived EU-Turkey relations.

Carola García-Calvo, Foreign policy and global presence: the strategies of Australia and South Africa. 20.01.2016. This paper examines the insertion in the globalisation process of Australia and South Africa in terms of global presence in order to determine whether they match the model outlined in their strategic foreign policy documents. The results show Australia’s global presence is based on its economic dimension, with primary and energy goods prominent, matching its strategic documents. Meanwhile, South Africa considers its exercise of regional leadership as its foundation of its influence in the international order but seems to have fallen behind Nigeria in terms of global presence due to the latter’s rapid growth.

Mario Esteban, The new drivers of Asia’s global presence. 21.01.2016. This paper examines the growing role of Asia in globalisation, showing that China is not the only important player and that its impact goes far beyond the economic dimension. The data for the overall region shows an upward trend in both military and soft presence. The former is due to the recorded figures of China and Japan while Asia’s soft presence is more scattered among various countries, with South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia all showing increases shares of soft power over the 1990-2014 period.

Salvador Llaudes, Juncker: no time for business as usual? 05.02.2016. How is the new European Commission, led by Jean-Claude Juncker, facing up to the numerous crises that are besetting the EU? Jean-Claude Juncker took office as President of the European Commission almost two years ago. The balance to date has been overshadowed by a string of crises that have called into question the viability of the European project itself.

Pierluigi Contucci and Rickard Sandell, How immigrant integration unfolds. 09.02.2016. Where and how should integration policy-makers focus their resources and attention? Integrating immigrants is politically challenging. This analysis shows in a novel way the increased complexity of immigrant integration as immigration becomes a more numerous phenomenon. The idea is to help pinpoint where and how integration policy-makers need to focus their resources and attention.

William Chislett, A New Course for Spain: Beyond the Crisis. Elcano Royal Institute, 2016.
This book seeks to explain how Spain moved from crisis to incipient recovery by looking at the reforms and the main sectors –macroeconomic fundamentals, exports, banking, investment abroad, foreign direct investment in Spain, etc–. It also looks at the challenges ahead including the new political situation with the erosion of the two-party system –the Popular Party and the Socialists– that has alternated in power since 1982 and the emergence of two new parties, the anti-austerity Podemos and centrist Ciudadanos.