Recent publications from the Royal Elcano Institute – Summer 2016


Expert comments

William Chislett, Spain’s repeat elections: PP in stronger position but deadlock remains, June 2016

The results of Spain’s election show that the ‘old’ still has a lot of life in it and the ‘new’ has not really yet been fully born. Spaniards are hoping this will not necessitate third elections.


Haizam Amirah-Fernández, Brexit and the EU’s ‘Syrian bill’, July 2016

The UK’s vote to withdraw from the EU has many and complex causes but it cannot be understood without making reference to the turbulence generated by the Syrian conflict.

Patrícia Lisa, After Brexit: Schengen remains in the balance, but the border question should not be neglected, July 2016

2016 can still be remembered as the moment of the successful call for the unilateral reestablishment of national border controls, leading to a progressive decline of freedom of movement in the EU. Another shock to Schengen’s foundations must not be allowed to happen again.


Mario Esteban, China: a partner for the development of Latin America?, July 2016

If a new pattern of China-Latin America economic interaction materialises, it would foster sustainable and long-term economic development in the region. This scenario has a double-edged impact on EU’s interests.

William Chislett, Turkey’s coup: the first one that failed, July 2016

Erdoğan should use the coup to be magnanimous and not further divide Turkey, but past events have shown that this is not his style.

Ilke Toygür, From a failed coup to state of emergency: democracy in Turkey today, July 2016

In light of Erdoğan’s push for a move towards a presidential regime, it is clear that there has never been enough support for a regime change. This situation might well change once the opposition has been purged


William Chislett, Inside Spain, Number 129, June 2016

Rajoy warns of consequences of Brexit.

Divided left ‘close’ to absolute majority in upcoming election.

Registered jobless drops below 4 million for first time in six years.

Spain moves up the Soft Power 30 ranking.

Telefónica teams up with Facebook and Microsoft in fibre-optic cable venture under


Espacio Bertelsmann, Fernando Reinares, and Carola García-Calvo, Islamic State in Spain, July 2016

The characteristics of the Islamic State (IS) in Spain, including motives for mobilization of IS supporters, recruitment, and the process of ideological radicalization.


William Chislett, Inside Spain, Number 130, July 2016

Rajoy against post-Brexit EU talks with Scotland.

Repeat election leaves parties struggling to form a new government.

Registered unemployed falls, GDP growth to be revised upwards.

Deaths outstrip births for first time in 75 years.

Brexit impact on Spanish companies.


Lara Lázaro-Touza, Brexit and climate change: recalibration ahead, July 2016

The UK vote to leave the EU has caught the world off guard. Internationally there will be a delay in the EU’s ratification of the Paris Agreement. Uncertainty is the key word at present but both the climate challenge and existing climate commitments remain unchanged

Mario Esteban, The China-Pakistan Corridor: a transit, economic or development corridor?, July 2016

What are the prospective implications of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on Pakistani development and regional stability?

Richard Higgott, TPP and TTIP in comparative context: what can Europe learn?, July 2017

There are lessons for Europe to learn from the experience of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Khadija Mohsen-Finan, Morocco’s indignation with Ban Ki-moon: is the Western Sahara an ‘occupied’ territory?, July 2016

The Secretary-General of the UN, Ban Ki-moon, has incurred the wrath of Morocco by referring to the ‘occupation’ of the Western Sahara and recalling the uncertainty that has surrounded the status of this territory for over 40 years.

Jessica Almqvist, Selecting the next UN Secretary-General: a shared responsibility, July 2016

The upcoming election of a new Secretary-General can be a potential turning point for the UN in its efforts to achieve a more transparent, inclusive and gender-balanced administration of its affairs.

Blog Posts

Myriam Nahón, Israeli Sephardim can finally be Spanish again, June 2016

The Law 12/2015 of 24th June is a historic gesture that crowns the process of reconciliation of Spain with its Sephardim.

Andrés Ortega, Spanish elections on 26 June: Have Spaniards fallen out of love with Europe?, June 2016

The EU has been, and continues to be, an essential frame of reference for Spain. However, now those with an unfavourable view of Europe are a majority.

Clara Pérez Bocanegra, The revival of the far right in Europe, June 2016

The so-called far right is currently present in most of the EU’s national parliaments. What are the reasons for this over the past five years in Europe?

Iliana Olivié, (A very preliminary assessment of) the global presence of the European Union without the United Kingdom, June 2016

This short piece aims at assessing (very preliminary) the impact of the EU Referendum held in the UK on the global presence of the European Union.

Andrés Ortega, The reversibility of Europe, June 2016

Since 1972, 58 referendums have been held on the EU and Europe. In the case of Brexit there will also be consequences, and much more profound.


Andrés Ortega, Regrexit, or indefinite postponement?, July 2016

The Brexit vote has wrought so much devastation on the British political stage that it is not inconceivable that it will never happen.

Andrés Ortega, NATO and the EU: finally, in a common-law marriage, July 2016

Despite of Brexit, desire is growing in the EU for greater military autonomy, certainly, but it is also becoming more focused on the Atlantic.

Gonzalo Escribano, The discreet (and declining) charm of Venezuelan oil diplomacy, July 2017

The slashing of oil exports to Cuba and the renegotiation of Chinese loans-for-oil illustrate the discreet and declining charm of Venezuelan oil diplomacy.

Andrés Ortega, What leads from a rocky outcrop to an island: geopolitics, July 2016

The PCA’s ruling has brought about increased tensions around the rocks in the South China Sea, even if they lead to some kind of negotiation.

William Troy, Italy’s best solution: private interest with a side of public bailout, July 2016

Allowing bailout in Italy is the lesser of two evils. A bailout has its costs, but the costs of enforcing a bail-in are more destructive and far-reaching.

William Chislett, Spain on course for another record year in tourism, September 2016

Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey’s loss of tourists has been partly Spain’s gain, helping the country to notch up another record year in arrivals.

Andrés Ortega, Europeans, get down to work, September 2016

The EU must decide not so much what it wants to be, as what it wants to do, both with itself and with the UK. Europeans should get down to work.

Andrés Ortega, Connectography, September 2016

Will infrastructure save the world economy? Connectography in a world that is going to become hyper-connected means that the most connected power wins.