“Recovery through external sector”, Vasyl Yurchyshyn (Razumkov Centre, Ukraine)

Short-term changes in the accounts of foreign economic activity provide clear signals of the nearest prospects of the national economy. In our previous review of Ukraine’s balance of payments, we focused on large-scale changes in the spring of 2022 in the structure of the foreign economic environment caused by the war. Here we will turn to the payments balance structure for the first three quarters, as we can already talk about a certain stabilisation of foreign economic dynamics, which may witness the adaptability of the country’s economic environment to the war losses.

As indicated, the vast majority of experts expects a fall in the country’s GDP by a third in 2022 (which is much better than the estimates in the first months of the aggression), and the good news (as much as it is possible in the current situation) is that the events and processes at the front are quickly reflected in the balance of payments — the liberation of the country provides a chance for growth of production, exports and, ultimately, the economy in general.

Read more here.