“Risks of losing US support? Minimal”, Vasyl Yurchyshyn (Razumkov Centre, Ukraine)

The headlines this week are, of course, about the results of the midterm elections in the USA, and with that — economic, financial, and military aid to Ukraine. There is widespread concern about a possible revision of the US policy of support for our country.

The fact that the Republicans “ousted” the Democrats is not surprising, as evidenced by historical experience. For 22 electoral periods — from 1934 till 2018 — the presidential party normally lost its representatives in the first midterm elections: on average, 28 seats in the House of Representatives and 4 seats in the Senate. The reasons for this change in electoral preferences are different, but the main one is the dissatisfaction of American voters, caused by the gap between the pre-election promises and the real results of the winning party in the most recent presidential race. Moreover, dissatisfaction is often fuelled by manipulations, which are especially effective in a highly politicised environment.

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