“Signs of stabilisation?”, Vasyl Yurchyshyn (Razumkov Centre, Ukraine)

In Ukraine, the results of surveys among company heads and top managers about the performance and expectations of their enterprises are presented regularly. However, such surveys rest on different methods, cover different enterprises or groups of enterprises, which significantly complicates generalisation. It is not surprising that estimates may differ substantially.

At the beginning of the year, expectations of positive and negative changes in industrial production were almost balanced (more than 50% of respondents did not expect changes, and the number of positive and negative assessments differed little), in spring, negative expectations significantly prevailed (table “Expected changes in industrial production volumes…”).

In the summer months, expectations improved significantly. In fact, almost half of the enterprises were convinced that there would be no significant changes in industrial production in the next three months. However, the question remains open, whether the situation will worsen (a decrease in production volumes), because enterprises have already “reached the bottom” in their production activities and “it will not get worse” (pessimistic interpretation), or (optimistic interpretation) stabilisation of the economic situation is finally taking place, and positive changes are possible in the future.

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