This commentary was originally published in January 2022.
In recent weeks, Putin has been moving around his pieces in the game of chess that is European security. The end game has not yet begun, but it is now clear that a hard confrontation is almost inevitable. At stake is not only the fate of Ukraine, but also the political cohesion of Europe.
What is going on? Why have recent diplomatic encounters achieved so little? And above all, what can be expected in the coming weeks if the escalation continues? We need to look at the interplay of Russian military, economic and diplomatic instruments of power.
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