“What Is the Forecast of the Economy of Ukraine?”, Vasyl Yurchyshyn (Razumkov Centre, Ukraine)

It might seem inappropriate to speak about economic forecasts, even about short-term ones, in conditions when the opposition to Russian aggression is in its full swing.  Meanwhile, there is an increasing gradual (and consistent) dominance of Ukrainian forces and, of course, there is no doubt that Ukraine will be able to defend its right to exist, its freedom and independence.  Therefore, even in conditions of significant uncertainty, some estimates of key macroeconomic indicators seem appropriate to determine the level of post-war recovery needs.

Some of the forward-looking comments presented here are naturally based on the assumption that negative processes will continue to persist, which will continue to put depressive pressure on the economic environment of the country: large human losses, unprecedented emigration, significant destruction of large cities and infrastructure throughout the country, currency and price pressures, etc.

Read more here.